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. 2019 Dec 4;10:5512. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13562-y

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Projections of RSV dynamics under different climate scenarios. a Simulated effect of log mean transmission and log seasonal transmission change (annual max–min transmission values) on dynamic pattern, holding births and initial population constant, with trajectories of current and future climate shown with arrows on the right plot. b Simulated epidemic dynamics for three states in Mexico using precipitation projections from all climate models (gray lines). Ninetieth percentile (red), 50th percentile (orange), and 10th percentile (blue) in terms of the amplitude of seasonal transmission are highlighted. c Map of the uncertainty in the projected 2100–2010 difference to log seasonal transmission change where outer circles is the upper 90th percentile and inset blue squares are the 10th percentile projections.