Table 4.

Observed and Expected Hip Fracture and MOF Events by Decile of Predicted Fracture Risk

		Hip fracture				Major osteoporotic fracture
Model	Decile	n	Obs	Pred	Obs/Pred	n	Obs	Pred	Obs/Pred
FRAX	1	9218	0.005	0.012	0.42	9432	0.054	0.071	0.76
	2	9361	0.007	0.015	0.47	9452	0.069	0.080	0.86
	3	9047	0.004	0.015	0.27	9441	0.078	0.087	0.90
	4	9066	0.007	0.016	0.44	9432	0.090	0.094	0.96
	5	9267	0.011	0.016	0.69	9420	0.102	0.101	1.01
	6	9318	0.015	0.017	0.88	9468	0.111	0.109	1.02
	7	9172	0.017	0.018	0.94	9426	0.138	0.120	1.15
	8	9202	0.028	0.020	1.40	9467	0.157	0.138	1.14
	9	9223	0.039	0.024	1.63	9432	0.178	0.168	1.06
	10	9201	0.083	0.061	1.36	9441	0.264	0.273	0.97
	Total	92,075	0.021	0.021	1.00	94,413	0.124	0.124	1.00

Model	Decile	n	Obs	Pred	Obs/Pred	n	Obs	Pred	Obs/Pred
FRAX + additional variablesa	1	9206	0.005	0.007	0.71	9440	0.048	0.059	0.81
	2	9210	0.007	0.010	0.70	9442	0.064	0.070	0.91
	3	9198	0.006	0.011	0.55	9440	0.076	0.079	0.96
	4	9215	0.007	0.013	0.54	9443	0.087	0.088	0.99
	5	9208	0.010	0.014	0.71	9441	0.099	0.097	1.02
	6	9208	0.014	0.016	0.88	9442	0.112	0.108	1.04
	7	9208	0.019	0.018	1.06	9441	0.123	0.124	0.99
	8	9208	0.025	0.022	1.14	9442	0.149	0.144	1.03
	9	9207	0.039	0.030	1.30	9442	0.195	0.178	1.10
	10	9207	0.084	0.075	1.12	9440	0.287	0.293	0.98
	Total	92,075	0.021	0.021	1.00	94,413	0.124	0.124	1.00

All models are adjusted by Women's Health Initiative Hormone and Calcium Vitamin D Trial intervention status (active, placebo, not randomized).

Obs = Observed proportion; Pred = predicted proportion; FRAX = fracture risk assessment tool.

^aTreated diabetes, ≥two falls in the past year, vasomotor symptoms, and physical function score.