Fig 10. Supplemental effect of community vaccination on the probability of epidemic extinction for populations with different household inaccessibility levels ranging from 0 to 50%.

Bars show the probability of epidemic extinction after 1.5 years for increasing vaccination measures: i) ring vaccination alone (blue bars), ii) ring vaccination with supplemental community vaccination with a rate of 5% community vaccination per day (light blue bars) and iii) ring vaccination with supplemental community vaccination with a rate of 10% vaccination per day. The horizontal line indicates the mean probability of extinction for the baseline scenario in the absence of vaccination. Timing was chosen to resemble the scenario for the DRC Ebola epidemic, with ring vaccination applied after 7 days and community vaccination applied after 9 months. These simulations were generated using the exponential transmission profile, but qualitatively similar results were obtained using the gravity transmission profile described in the main text.