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Time series of reported dengue cases in Rio de Janeiro, from January 2011 to April 2012. The black solid line shows the eventually reported number of dengue cases per week. The red dashed line shows the currently reported number of cases from the 6th to the 15th epidemic week of 2012 (circled cross). The black dotted line shows the model estimates for this period, along with 95% prediction intervals in grey [Colour figure can be viewed at http://wileyonlinelibrary.com]
