Table 3.

Parameter estimates from multivariable LASSO model predicting first-onset TMD. Model_1 is based on all variables listed in Table 1; see supplemental materials for detailed results of the more restrictive models. In Model_1A, enrollment (v1) status of each variable was entered into the LASSO regression, whereas in Model_1B, both enrollment status (v1) and the respective change score from enrollment to TMD onset visit or corresponding clinic visit for matched controls (v2-v1) were entered into the LASSO regression. Results represent ln(SOR); each predictor variable was standardized to z-scores. Results are adjusted for race (African-American, Asian) and for Study site (Maryland). Shaded cells refer to variables that were not measured at v2, and therefore no change score was available for entry into the LASSO regression. Blank cells indicate non-contributory variable to the respective LASSO model.

Predictor	Model_1A	Model_1B
	Enrollment	Enrollment	Change
Non-specific face and jaw symptoms (#)	0.144	0.488	1.003
Stress and coping (PSS total score)	0.044	0.066
Trait anxiety (STAI)	0.078	0.051
Sleep quality (PSQI)	0.070	0.032
Depression (SCL90R)	0.128	0.099
Physical symptoms (SCL90R)	0.279	0.228
Heat pain after-sensation @15s (48°C)	0.001	0.017
Positive affect score (POMS)		−0.003
Maximum unassisted jaw opening (mm)		0.109
Body sites painful to palpation (#)		0.231	0.284
Different headache types (#), past year			0.099
Oral parafunction (OBC total score)			0.157
Chewing limitation (JFLS subscale score)			0.319
Jaw opening limitation (JFLS subscale score)			0.019
Pain-free opening (mm)			−0.071
State anxiety (STAI)			0.096
PPT: Masseter			−0.186
PPT: Trapezius			−0.217
Mechanical pain after-sensation @15s (512 nM)			0.087
Area under the curve (95%CL)	0.71 (0.68, 0.73)	0.91 (0.89, 0.94)