Table 3.
Hazard Ratios and Predicted Risk Calculation for CHARGE-AF Enriched, All Predictors, and Novel MESA Five-year Atrial Fibrillation Risk Prediction Models
| CHARGE-AF Enriched |
All Predictors | Novel MESA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | HR (95% CI) |
Beta* | HR (95% CI) |
Beta* | HR (95% CI) |
Beta* |
| Age (per 5 years) | 1.64 | 0.0984 | 1.56 | 0.0886 | 1.58 | |
| (1.45–1.85) | (1.36–1.79) | (1.40–1.80) | 0.0917 | |||
| Non-Hispanic white | 1.09 | 0.0875 | 1.18 | 0.1665 | ||
| (0.75–1.59) | (0.79–1.77) | |||||
| Non-Hispanic white | 1.03 | 0.0032 | 1.02 | 0.0023 | ||
| (0.82–1.30) | (0.79–1.32) | |||||
| Weight (per 15 kg) | 1.37 | 0.0208 | 1.32 | 0.0186 | 1.37 | |
| (1.11–1.69) | (1.05–1.66) | (1.15–1.63) | 0.0208 | |||
| Systolic BP (per 20 mm Hg) | 0.93 | - | 0.93 | - | ||
| (0.74–1.18) | 0.0034 | (0.72–1.20) | 0.0038 | |||
| Diastolic BP (per 10 mm Hg) | 1.03 | 0.0030 | 1.00 | - | ||
| (0.80–1.32) | (0.76–1.31) | 0.0004 | ||||
| Current smoker | 2.05 | 0.7184 | 2.06 | 0.7231 | 1.97 | |
| (1.21–3.48) | (1.19–3.58) | (1.17–3.32) | 0.6774 | |||
| Antihypertensive medication use | 1.23 | 0.2036 | 1.21 | 0.1932 | ||
| (0.84–1.78) | (0.83–1.77) | |||||
| Diabetes mellitus | 0.76 | - | 0.68 | - | ||
| (0.42–1.38) | 0.2752 | (0.37–1.26) | 0.3850 | |||
| Ln(NT-proBNP) (per 1 SD) | 1.54 | 0.4343 | 1.55 | 0.4355 | 1.51 | |
| (1.27–1.88) | (1.26–1.90) | (1.26–1.82) | 0.4148 | |||
| Serum creatinine (per 0.1 mg/dL) | 0.99 | - | ||||
| (0.93–1.06) | 0.0545 | |||||
| Detectable cardiac troponin-T | 1.75 | 0.5596 | 1.38 | |||
| (0.61–4.99) | (0.54–3.52) | 0.3221 | ||||
| Basal superior lateral wall thickness (per 5 mm)† | 0.87 | 0.0290 | ||||
| (0.59–1.26) | 0.0290 | |||||
| Mid-ventricular anterior wall thickness (per 5 mm)† | 1.42 | 0.0696 | ||||
| (1.02–1.97) | ||||||
| Heart rate (per 5 beats per minute) | 1.04 | 0.0074 | ||||
| (0.94–1.15) | ||||||
| Heart rate variability (per 10 ms) | 0.95 | - | ||||
| (0.85–1.07) | 0.0051 | |||||
| R amplitude in lead V4 (per 100 uV) | 1.01 | 0.0001 | ||||
| STJ amplitude in lead V5 (per 10 uV) | 1.02 | 0.0019 | ||||
| (0.97–1.07) | 0.0019 | |||||
| QRS Axis (per 10 degrees) | 0.99 | - | ||||
| (0.93–1.05) | 0.0010 | |||||
| Ln(CAC + 1) (per 1 SD) | 1.04 | 0.0432 | 1.05 | |||
| (0.96–1.13) | (0.97–1.13) | 0.0448 | ||||
| Ankle-brachial index (per 0.05) | 0.99 | - | ||||
| (0.93–1.06) | 0.1251 | |||||
| Common cIMT (per 0.5 mm) | 1.07 | 0.1424 | ||||
| (0.65–1.77) | ||||||
| Internal cIMT (per 0.5 mm) | 0.96 | |||||
| (0.83–1.11) | 0.0810 | |||||
The 5-year risk for the CHARGE-AF Enriched model can be calculated as 1–0.9819exp(ΣbX–9.7729) where b is the regression coefficient (beta) and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for the All Predictors model can be calculated as 1–0.9823exp(ΣbX–9.6722); the risk for the Novel MESA model can be calculated as 1–0.9815exp(ΣbX–8.9785).
*
Per 1-unit increase
†
Measured during end-s stole
Abbreviations: BP = blood pressure; CAC = coronary artery calcium; CI = confidence interval; cIMT = carotid inĝ. media thickness; NT-proBNP = N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide