Table 3.

Results from the Study 2 mediation multilevel structural equation model predicting the likelihood of next day drinking day and number of drinks consumed.

	Drank Next Day						Next Day Drinking Amount
Parameter	Est.	Posterior S.D.	p	95% C.I.			Est.	Posterior S.D.	p	95% C.I.
				Lower	Upper					Lower	Upper
Within
awithin: Stress → Craving	3.589	1.042	<.001	1.542	5.605		3.728	1.092	.001	1.594	5.858
bwithin: Craving → Drinking	.005	.002	.011	.001	.010		.026	.008	.001	.010	.041
cwithin: Stress → Drinking	.012	.105	.457	−.191	.219		.117	.294	.346	−.466	.691
c’within: Stress → Drinking	.035	.106	.373	−.169	.247		−.091	.288	.358	−.610	.500
Between
abetween: Stress → Craving	6.175	2.699	.010	.997	11.771		5.821	2.650	.012	.741	11.198
bbetween: Craving → Drinking	.045	.012	<.001	.022	.070		.058	.015	<.001	.028	.087
cbetween: Stress → Drinking	−.232	.151	.057	−.541	.062		−.258	.180	.072	−.622	.095
c’between: Stress → Drinking	.045	.171	.397	−.286	.396		−.262	.186	.071	−.630	.089
Indirect (a x b)
indirect within	.019	.010	.011	.002	.041		.096	.042	.001	.026	.188
indirect between	.275	.144	.010	.035	.601		.337	.179	.013	.035	.740

Note: Est. = estimate, S.D. = standard deviation, C.I.= credibility interval, p = Bayesian onet-ailed p-value, or the proportion of the posterior distribution that overlaps zero (for positive estimates=proportion below zero, for negative estimates=proportion above zero). Analyses controlled for gender, age, medication condition, day in the study, smoking status, and psychiatric diagnoses. The drinking day outcome is a binary variable (0=non-drinking day, 1=drinking day), thus probit link was used for the outcome variable. The Bayesian credibility interval encompasses the lower 2.5% and 97.5% in the posterior distribution.