Table 2.
Comparisons of empirical survey estimates of the proportion of individuals aged 15–49 years ever tested for HIV (by sex and HIV status) and self-reported awareness status among PLHIV with Shiny90 model predictions from (a) the fully calibrated model and from out-of-sample predictions that (b) excluded all post-2012 survey and HIV testing services (HTS) program data, (c1) excluded all post-2012 survey data (included sex-combined HTS program data), and (c2) excluded all post-2012 survey data, but included sex-disaggregated HTS data.
| Comparisons | Predictions (95% CrI) | |||||
| Country/outcome | Survey and year | Survey estimates (95% CI) | (a) Full data calibration | (b) Excluding survey and HTS data | (c1) Excluding survey data only (HTS data sex-combined) | (c2) Excluding survey data only (HTS data sex-disaggregated) |
| Côte d’Ivoire | ||||||
| Women ever tested | MICS 2016 | 56% (54–58%) | 52% (51–53%) | 51% (43–65%) | 53% (49–58%) | 53% (51–55%) |
| Men ever tested | MICS 2016 | 35% (32–37%) | 32% (30–33%) | 35% (28–46%) | 36% (31–41%) | 29% (28–31%) |
| WLHIV ever tested | PHIA 2017 | NPD | 74% (70–77%) | 72% (64–83%) | 74% (69–79%) | 74% (73–76%) |
| MLHIV ever tested | PHIA 2017 | NPD | 49% (46–52%) | 52% (44–66%) | 54% (48–61%) | 47% (45–49%) |
| PLHIV aware (’first 90’) | PHIA 2017 | 37%a | 58% (53–61%) | 56% (47–70%) | 59% (53–64%) | 57% (55–58%) |
| Malawi | ||||||
| Women ever tested | PHIA 2016 | 83% (82–84%) | 82% (81–83%) | 88% (77–96%) | 91% (90–92%) | 89% (87–90%) |
| Men ever tested | PHIA 2016 | 66% (65–68%) | 67% (66–68%) | 61% (51–76%) | 64% (60–68%) | 68% (66–70%) |
| WLHIV ever tested | PHIA 2016 | 96% (94–97%) | 95% (94–96%) | 98% (93–100%) | 98% (98–99%) | 98% (97–98%) |
| MLHIV ever tested | PHIA 2016 | 89% (86–92%) | 88% (87–89%) | 86% (79–93%) | 87% (84–89%) | 90% (88–91%) |
| PLHIV aware (’first 90’) | PHIA 2016 | 76% (73–78%) | 81% (79–82%) | 81% (73–89%) | 83% (82–85%) | 84% (82–85%) |
| Mozambique | ||||||
| Women ever tested | AIS 2015 | 60% (57–63%) | 62% (61–64%) | 56% (48–67%) | 70% (64–77%) | 65% (62–68%) |
| Men ever tested | AIS 2015 | 38% (35–41%) | 36% (35–38%) | 28% (24–37%) | 38% (32–46%) | 38% (36–40%) |
| WLHIV ever tested | AIS 2015 | 73% (68–77%) | 77% (75–79%) | 74% (67–83%) | 84% (78–89%) | 80% (76–83%) |
| MLHIV ever tested | AIS 2015 | 56% (51–62%) | 55% (51–57%) | 48% (42–56%) | 57% (50–64%) | 57% (53–60%) |
| PLHIV aware (’first 90’) | AIS 2015 | 40% (37–44%) | 63% (60–65%) | 52% (44–63%) | 68% (61–72%) | 66% (61–69%) |
95% CrI, 95% credible interval; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; HTS, HIV testing services; MICS, multiple indicators cluster survey; MLHIV, men living with HIV; NA, not available; NPD, not in public domain (but included in the calibration); PHIA, population-based HIV impact assessment; WLHIV, women living with HIV.
aAge group is 15–64 years and estimate is not adjusted for presence of antiretroviral metabolites.