Table 1. Projected scenarios for upper non-manual employees and manual workers under assumptions that absolute or relative changes in cardiovascular disease mortality are maintained.

					Absolute change projected		Relative change projected
		Mortality 2010-14a	Absolute annualised change	Relative annualised change	Years to zeroc	Differenced	Projected mortality 2020-24	Years to fall 50%e	Differenced	Years to fall to UNMf
Finland	Upper non-manual	69.7	-5.7	-4.8	12.2	6.5	42.6	14.1	4.8	0
	Manual	192.8	-10.3	-3.6	18.7		133.6	18.9		27.8
Denmark	Upper non-manual	49.6	-4.5	-5.5	11.0	5.0	28.2	12.3	3.5	0
	Manual	108.7	-6.8	-4.3	16.0		70.0	15.8		17.9
England & Wales	Upper non-manual	59.6	-7.8	-6.5	7.6	2.3	30.4	10.3	1.7	0
	Manual	103.6	-10.4	-5.6	10.0		58.2	12.0		9.6
Austria	Upper non-manual	53.5	-3.3	-3.9	16.2	2.5	35.9	17.4	1.5	0
	Manual	73	-3.9	-3.6	18.7		50.6	18.9		8.5
Switzerland	Upper non-manual	50.6	-3.7	-4.5	13.7	4.4	31.9	15.1	3.3	0
	Manual	114.1	-6.3	-3.7	18.1		78.3	18.4		21.6
Italy (Turin)	Upper non-manual	56.6b	-6.6	-3.8	3.6	-0.4	31.7	17.9	-1.3	0
	Manual	77.7b	-9.5	-4.1	3.2		41.5	16.6		2.6
Estonia	Upper non-manual	149	-13.3	-6	11.2	5.9	80.3	11.2	4.2	0
	Manual	354.4	-20.7	-4.4	17.1		226.0	15.4		19.3
Lithuania	Upper non-manual	271.4	-0.7	-0.3	387.7	-	263.4	230.7	-	0
	Manual	547.5	0.4	0.1	-		553.0	-		-

^aAge standardised cardiovascular disease mortality rates per 100,000 person years, men, 35-64 years

^bRates for Turin relate to 2005-09

^cNumber of years taken from 2010-14 for mortality rate to fall to zero, assuming absolute annualised changes persist

^dAdditional years required for manual workers over upper non-manual employees

^eNumber of years taken from 2010-14 for mortality rate to fall by 50%, assuming relative annualised changes persist

^fNumber of years taken from 2010-14 for mortality rate to fall to that experienced by upper non-manual employees in 2010-14