Table 1.
Comparison of candidate SARIMA models.
| Model | Estimate | Z | p-Value | Ljung-Box Q Test | AIC | BIC | RMSE | MAPE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics | DF | p-Value | ||||||||
| SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 | - | - | - | 22.753 | 16 | 0.121 | 541.661 | 550.692 | 1.439 | 48.744 |
| q | 0.654 | 11.00 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Q | −0.415 | −2.17 | 0.030 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,1)12 | - | - | - | 25.607 | 16 | 0.060 | 535.296 | 544.327 | 1.407 | 44.280 |
| p | 0.668 | 25.68 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Q | −0.445 | −2.24 | 0.025 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SARIMA (1,0,1) (0,1,1)12 | - | - | - | 8.157 | 15 | 0.917 | 523.172 | 535.214 | 1.345 | 44.137 |
| p | 0.481 | 3.15 | 0.002 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| q | −0.393 | −3.772 | 0.074 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Q | 0.473 | −2.53 | 0.012 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,1)12 | - | - | - | 7.916 | 14 | 0.894 | 525.083 | 540.136 | 1.348 | 44.021 |
| p | 0.476 | 2.93 | 0.003 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| q | 0.399 | 1.76 | 0.078 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P | −0.080 | −0.10 | 0.923 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Q | −0.425 | −0.50 | 0.615 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
AIC: Akaike information criterion; BIC: Bayesian information criterion; RMSE: root mean squared error; MAPE: mean absolute percent error; DF: degree of freedom.