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. 2019 Sep 18;28(12):1032–1038. doi: 10.1136/bmjqs-2018-009165

Table 1.

Expected variation due to chance predicted from the Poisson distribution for different counts of events.

Counts Size of variation covering 95% of units
8 or less >fourfold
9–14 threefold to fourfold
15–33 twofold to threefold
34–90 1.5-fold to 2-fold
91–214 1.3-fold to 1.5-fold
215–462 1.2-fold to 1.3-fold