Table 3.

Summary of the numerical results for the shorter cut-off times. Here, we fix T = 3 so that the epidemic process is near its peak at T (also see figure 8). Method 3 yields accurate estimates without requiring knowledge of the size of the susceptible population n. Values in italics indicate the results corresponding to the best performing method.

			β			γ			ρ
	n	statistics	Method 1	Method 2	Method 3	Method 1	Method 2	Method 3	Method 3
β = 2	104	Avg.	2.0443	2.0443	2.0009	0.4996	0.4996	0.5010	0.0494
		(MSE)	(0.00221)	(0.00221)	(0.00082)	(0.00006)	(0.00006)	(0.00007)	(0.00001)
γ = 0.5	103	Avg.	2.0041	2.0040	2.0134	0.5034	0.5033	0.4956	0.0506
		(MSE)	(0.00545)	(5.44670)	(0.00940)	(0.00067)	(0.00067)	(0.00053)	(0.00012)
ρ = 0.05	102	Avg.	2.0101	2.0100	1.8631	0.5059	0.5069	0.5004	0.0700
		(MSE)	(0.07191)	(7.19654)	(0.10753)	(0.00669)	(0.00677)	(0.00962)	(0.00240)
β = 2	104	Avg.	2.1991	2.1991	2.0086	0.9981	0.9982	0.9992	0.0490
		(MSE)	(0.04083)	(0.04083)	(0.00124)	(0.00031)	(0.00031)	(0.00023)	(0.00002)
γ = 1	103	Avg.	1.9989	1.9989	1.9958	1.0037	1.0036	0.9932	0.0507
		(MSE)	(0.00751)	(0.00751)	(0.00945)	(0.00210)	(0.00210)	(0.00214)	(0.00013)
ρ = 0.05	102	Avg.	1.9979	1.9980	1.8553	1.0499	1.0474	0.9973	0.0912
		(MSE)	(0.08047)	(0.08043)	(0.22925)	(0.11915)	(0.11203)	(0.07570)	(0.00939)
β = 1.5	104	Avg	1.5713	1.5713	1.5044	1.0037	1.0036	1.0001	0.0492
		(MSE)	(0.00804)	(0.00804)	(0.00118)	(0.00046)	(0.00046)	(0.00036)	(0.00001)
γ = 1	103	Avg.	1.5091	1.5091	1.5073	1.0079	1.0080	0.9935	0.0521
		(MSE)	(0.00794)	(0.00794)	(0.00945)	(0.00381)	(0.00381)	(0.00396)	(0.00016)
ρ = 0.05	102	Avg.	1.4398	1.4398	1.2439	1.1220	1.1192	1.0020	0.1435
		(MSE)	(0.10451)	(0.10461)	(0.24216)	(0.16303)	(0.15773)	0.06412)	(0.02082)