Table 1. Medical model parameters.
| Parameter | Mean | Range DSA | Distribution for PSA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort size | 9,519 | 8,136–10,903 | [30–34] | |
| Probability NEC* | 5.7% | 4.9%–6.5% | Dirichlet (Gamma(1;543)) | [24] |
| - NEC surgical | 25.1% | 21.8%–28.7% | Beta (682.05;2030.95) | [25] |
| -- NEC surgical BPD | 7.2% | 6.7%–7.8% | Beta (689.33;8829.07) | [30–34] |
| -- NEC surgical SBS | 19.4% | 15.9%–23.3% | Beta (88.81;369.19) | [27] |
| -- NEC surgical RoP* | 9.0% | 7.4%–10.8% | Beta (1,178.93;11,967.07) | [26] |
| -- NEC surgical Cerebral Palsy | 23.8% | 17.7%–30.9% | Beta (40.76;130.24) | [6, 29] |
| -- NEC surgical Neurological | 39.3% | 21.5%–59.4% | Beta (10.61;16.39) | [6] |
| - NEC medical | 74.9% | 71.3%–78.2% | Complementary probability to NEC surgical | |
| -- NEC medical BPD, RoP* | - Same as NEC surgical - | |||
| -- NEC medical Cerebral Palsy | 11.6% | 7.4%–17.1% | Beta (21.88;166.12) | [6, 29] |
| -- NEC medical Neurological | 23.1% | 11.1%–39.3% | Beta (8.77;29.23) | [6] |
| - NEC surgical and medical mortality | 10.9% | 6.1%–15.7% | Beta(118.68;972.32) | [2] |
| - Background mortality | - Same as No complication mortality - | |||
| Sepsis* | 12.7% | 12.1%–13.2% | Dirichlet Gamma(1;1,206)) | [25] |
| -- Sepsis BPD | - Same as NEC surgical - | |||
| -- Sepsis RoP* | 2.8% | 2.3%–3.4% | Beta (368.02;12,777.98) | [26] |
| -- Sepsis Cerebral Palsy | 19.5% | 6.7%–32.3% | Beta (51.56;212.44) | [6, 35] |
| -- Sepsis Neurological | 35.9% | 29.9%–42.3% | Beta (87.64;156.36) | [6] |
| - Sepsis mortality | 17.5% | 23.3%–23.6% | Beta(32.83;155.17) | [36] |
| - Background mortality | - Same as No complication mortality - | |||
| Sepsis + NEC | 2.3% | 1.8%–2.8% | Dirichlet (Gamma(1;217)) | |
| - Sepsis + NEC surgical | - Same as NEC surgical - | |||
| -- Sepsis + NEC surgical BPD, RoP, SBS | - Same as NEC surgical - | |||
| -- Sepsis + NEC surgical Cerebral Palsy | 21.4% | 4.7%–50.8% | Beta (2.79;10.21) | [6] |
| -- Sepsis + NEC surgical Neurological | 50.0% | 23.0%–77.0% | Beta (6.50;6.50) | [6] |
| - Sepsis + NEC medical | - Same as NEC medical - | |||
| -- Sepsis + NEC medical BPD, RoP | - Same as NEC medical - | |||
| -- Sepsis + NEC medical Cerebral Palsy | 20.0% | 5.7%–43.7% | Beta (3.80;15.20) | [6] |
| -- Sepsis + NEC medical Neurological | 45.0% | 23.1%–68.5% | Beta (8.55;10.45) | [6] |
| - Sepsis + NEC surgical mortality | - Combined probabilities of Sepsis and NEC surgical - | |||
| - Sepsis + NEC medical mortality | - Combined probabilities of Sepsis and NEC medical - | |||
| - Background mortality | - Same as No complication mortality - | |||
| No NEC or sepsis | 79.3% | 77.4%–81.1% | Dirichlet Gamma(1;7,553)) | |
| -- No NEC or sepsis BPD | - Same as NEC surgical - | |||
| -- No NEC or sepsis RoP* | 2.8% | 2.3%–3.4% | Beta (368.02;12,777.98) | [26] |
| -- No NEC or sepsis Cerebral Palsy | 15.0% | 12.6%–17.6% | Beta (120.85;687.15) | [6] |
| -- No NEC or sepsis Neurological | 22.0% | 19.2%–25.0% | Beta (177.78;630.22) | [6] |
| - No complication mortality | 14.9% | 13.7%–16.2% | Beta (838.92;5,752.05) | [26] |
Parameters marked with a * are calculated using relative risks from other studies. (DSA: deterministic sensitivity analysis, PSA: probabilistic sensitivity analysis, NEC: necrotising enterocolitis, BPD: bronchopulmonary dysplasia, SBS: short bowel syndrome, RoP: retinopathy of prematurity)