Table 1. Summary attributable changes in rainfall.

Comparison of 11 September 00Z full ensembles and 10-member ensemble subsets to the forecasted attribution statement. For the full ensembles, differences in mean values are provided with a 95% confidence interval, which given the large ensemble size matches the 95% confidence interval derived from a bootstrap analysis of 1000 samples. The 95% confidence interval for 10-member ensemble subsets is also derived from a bootstrap analysis of 1000 samples.

	Difference in mean maximum precipitation	Difference in mean total overland precipitation	Difference in mean maximum outer storm diameter
Full ensemble Mean with 95% confidence interval (conventional)	3.8 ± 5.7%	4.9 ± 4.6%	9.1 ± 6.1 km
Full ensemble 95% confidence interval (bootstrapped)	−1.2 to 9.6%	0.7 to 10.3%	3.1 to 15.3 km
10-member ensembles subsets 95% confidence interval (bootstrapped)	−10.8 to 22.5%	−8.2 to 21.4%	−8.6 to 28.5 km
Forecast	—	50%	80 km