Table 12:

Expected Target Population for Flash Glucose Monitoring

Measure	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Ontario population, n	14,004,100	14,081,900	14,154,600	14,222,100	14,284,300
Projected prevalence of diabetes in Ontario, %	11.12	11.43	11.74	12.05	12.36
Projected Ontario population with diabetes, n	1,557,256	1,609,561	1,661,750	1,713,763	1,765,539
Projected type 1 diabetes (6%), n	93,435	96,574	99,705	102,826	105,932
Type 1 diabetes suitable for flash glucose monitoring (65%), na	60,733	62,773	64,808	66,837	68,856
0–24 years of age	16,702	17,263	17,822	18,380	18,935
25–64 years of age	36,257	37,475	38,691	39,902	41,107
≥ 65 years of age	7,774	8,035	8,295	8,555	8,814
Suitable type 1 diabetes covered by ODB program, nb	28,537	29,495	30,450	31,404	32,353
Uptake rate, %	15	20	25	30	35
Target population with type 1 diabetes, n	4,281	5,899	7,613	9,421	11,324
Projected type 2 diabetes (94%), n	1,463,821	1,512,987	1,562,045	1,610,937	1,659,607
Type 2 diabetes treated with intensive insulin therapy (10%), n	146,382	151,299	156,205	161,094	165,961
Type 2 diabetes suitable for flash glucose monitoring (80%), na	117,106	121,039	124,964	128,875	132,769
0–24 years of age	1,757	1,816	1,874	1,933	1,992
25–64 years of age	62,886	64,998	67,106	69,206	71,296
65+ years of age	52,463	54,225	55,984	57,736	59,481
Suitable type 2 diabetes covered by ODB program, nb	61,263	63,321	65,374	67,420	69,458
Uptake rate, %	15	20	25	30	35
Target population with type 2 diabetes, n	9,189	12,664	16,344	20,226	24,310
Total target population in reference case, n	13,470	18,563	23,957	29,647	35,634

Abbreviation: ODB, Ontario Drug Benefit.

^aWe excluded people with hypoglycemic unawareness and people at high risk for glycemic variability who were not suitable for flash glucose monitoring (i.e., 35% type 1 diabetes and 20% type 2 diabetes treated with intensive insulin therapy).

^bThe Ontario Drug Benefit program covers all people younger than 25 or older than 65 years of age and 11.2% of patients between 25 and 64 years of age.⁹²