Table 15:
Scenario | Budget Impact, $a | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Scenario 1: All patients who require intensive insulin therapy, with or without ODB coverageb | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 8,295,983 | 11,432,270 | 14,753,703 | 18,257,632 | 21,945,841 |
Flash, T1D | 21,823,186 | 30,075,733 | 38,812,217 | 48,032,490 | 57,732,074 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 13,527,203 | 18,643,463 | 24,058,514 | 29,774,859 | 35,786,232 |
SMBG, T2D | 12,071,111 | 16,635,654 | 21,469,886 | 26,569,317 | 31,933,949 |
Flash, T2D | 42,198,312 | 58,154,224 | 75,051,879 | 92,879,113 | 111,631,298 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 30,127,201 | 41,518,570 | 53,581,993 | 66,309,795 | 79,697,349 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 43,654,405 | 60,162,033 | 77,640,507 | 96,084,654 | 115,483,581 |
Scenario 2: Assumes that target population uses 3,000 strips per year (8 per day) in SMBG groupc | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 10,467,045 | 14,423,055 | 18,613,785 | 23,034,345 | 27,687,180 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 75,934 | 104,634 | 135,036 | 167,105 | 200,859 |
SMBG, T2D | 22,467,105 | 30,963,480 | 39,961,080 | 49,452,570 | 59,437,950 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 162,990 | 224,628 | 289,902 | 358,759 | 431,199 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 238,924 | 329,261 | 424,937 | 525,864 | 632,058 |
Scenario 3: Assumes that target population uses 730 strips per year (2 per day) in SMBG groupc | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 2,546,981 | 3,509,610 | 4,529,354 | 5,605,024 | 6,737,214 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 7,995,998 | 11,018,078 | 14,219,466 | 17,596,426 | 21,150,826 |
SMBG, T2D | 5,466,996 | 7,534,447 | 9,723,863 | 12,033,459 | 14,463,235 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 17,163,099 | 23,653,661 | 30,527,119 | 37,777,870 | 45,405,914 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 25,159,098 | 34,671,739 | 44,746,585 | 55,374,296 | 66,556,740 |
Scenario 4: All patients with type 2 diabetes who require any type of insulin therapy (including, but not limited to, intensive insulin therapy)b,d | |||||
SMBG, T2D | 21,867,982 | 30,137,787 | 38,895,451 | 48,133,835 | 57,852,938 |
Flash, T2D | 45,260,190 | 62,376,215 | 80,501,963 | 99,622,657 | 119,738,297 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 23,392,208 | 32,238,428 | 41,606,512 | 51,488,823 | 61,885,359 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 26,294,244 | 36,237,287 | 46,767,270 | 57,875,201 | 69,561,757 |
Scenario 5: Adults with diabetes (type 1 and type 2) who require intensive insulin therapyb | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 4,472,834 | 6,163,087 | 7,955,076 | 9,845,233 | 11,831,771 |
Flash, T1D | 6,171,620 | 8,503,833 | 10,976,421 | 13,584,460 | 16,325,487 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 1,698,786 | 2,340,746 | 3,021,345 | 3,739,227 | 4,493,716 |
SMBG, T2D | 10,830,470 | 14,924,916 | 19,260,911 | 23,837,267 | 28,650,412 |
Flash, T2D | 22,415,837 | 30,890,116 | 39,864,332 | 49,336,020 | 59,297,794 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 11,585,367 | 15,965,201 | 20,603,421 | 25,498,754 | 30,647,381 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 13,284,153 | 18,305,946 | 23,624,765 | 29,237,981 | 35,141,098 |
Scenario 6: Includes patients at high risk of glycemic variabilityb | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 8,817,159 | 12,149,474 | 15,678,122 | 19,401,320 | 23,320,850 |
Flash, T1D | 12,165,923 | 16,763,854 | 21,632,686 | 26,769,957 | 32,178,128 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 3,348,764 | 4,614,380 | 5,954,564 | 7,368,637 | 8,857,278 |
SMBG, T2D | 12,301,186 | 16,952,505 | 21,878,691 | 27,074,985 | 32,542,575 |
Flash, T2D | 25,459,780 | 35,086,621 | 45,282,354 | 56,037,129 | 67,353,408 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 13,158,594 | 18,134,116 | 23,403,663 | 28,962,144 | 34,810,833 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 16,507,358 | 22,748,496 | 29,358,227 | 36,330,782 | 43,668,111 |
Scenario 7: Funding is capped at 4 flash sensors per patient per yeare | |||||
Flash, T1D | 8,087,410 | 11,144,039 | 14,382,026 | 17,797,592 | 21,392,626 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 446,467 | 615,209 | 793,963 | 982,520 | 1,180,984 |
Flash, T2D | 12,733,392 | 17,548,773 | 22,648,227 | 28,027,596 | 33,686,881 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 1,799,401 | 2,479,879 | 3,200,501 | 3,960,679 | 4,760,412 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 2,245,868 | 3,095,088 | 3,994,464 | 4,943,198 | 5,941,397 |
Scenario 8: Funding is capped at 8 flash sensors per patient per yeare | |||||
Flash, T1D | 8,533,877 | 11,759,248 | 15,175,988 | 18,780,111 | 22,573,610 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 892,934 | 1,230,418 | 1,587,925 | 1,965,039 | 2,361,969 |
Flash, T2D | 14,532,792 | 20,028,652 | 25,848,727 | 31,988,275 | 38,447,294 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 3,598,801 | 4,959,758 | 6,401,002 | 7,921,357 | 9,520,825 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 4,491,735 | 6,190,176 | 7,988,927 | 9,886,397 | 11,882,793 |
Scenario 9: Includes all costs associated with monitoring blood glucose (i.e., beyond those reimbursed) | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 7,875,328 | 10,851,800 | 14,004,875 | 17,330,872 | 20,831,630 |
Flash, T1D | 10,562,511 | 14,554,603 | 18,783,555 | 23,244,433 | 27,939,705 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 2,687,184 | 3,702,802 | 4,778,680 | 5,913,562 | 7,108,075 |
SMBG, T2D | 11,269,390 | 15,531,130 | 20,044,282 | 24,805,166 | 29,813,784 |
Flash, T2D | 22,672,020 | 31,245,887 | 40,325,551 | 49,903,610 | 59,980,063 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 11,402,630 | 15,714,758 | 20,281,270 | 25,098,443 | 30,166,279 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 14,089,814 | 19,417,560 | 25,059,950 | 31,012,005 | 37,274,354 |
Scenario 10: Assumes a lower price of flash sensors ($70 vs. $89 in the reference case) | |||||
Flash, T1D | 8,428,165 | 11,613,583 | 14,987,999 | 18,547,476 | 22,293,983 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 787,222 | 1,084,752 | 1,399,936 | 1,732,404 | 2,082,342 |
Flash, T2D | 18,090,729 | 24,932,092 | 32,177,046 | 39,819,685 | 47,860,009 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 7,156,738 | 9,863,198 | 12,729,320 | 15,752,767 | 18,933,540 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 7,943,960 | 10,947,950 | 14,129,256 | 17,485,171 | 21,015,882 |
Scenario 11: Assumes a higher uptake rate, at 50% in year 1 to 70% in year 5b | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 25,468,025 | 28,953,837 | 32,609,210 | 36,434,143 | 40,421,498 |
Flash, T1D | 35,140,801 | 39,950,528 | 44,994,214 | 50,271,861 | 55,773,616 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 9,672,777 | 10,996,691 | 12,385,005 | 13,837,718 | 15,352,118 |
SMBG, T2D | 36,449,017 | 41,440,647 | 46,672,638 | 52,144,988 | 57,854,128 |
Flash, T2D | 75,438,575 | 85,769,759 | 96,598,416 | 107,924,545 | 119,740,760 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 38,989,558 | 44,329,112 | 49,925,778 | 55,779,558 | 61,886,632 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 48,662,335 | 55,325,803 | 62,310,783 | 69,617,275 | 77,238,750 |
Scenario 12: Uses lower-priced strips, $0.4 per strip | |||||
SMBG, T1D | 4,453,310 | 6,136,435 | 7,919,423 | 9,800,195 | 11,779,791 |
Flash, T1D | 10,277,343 | 14,161,656 | 18,276,434 | 22,616,877 | 27,185,385 |
Net budget impact, T1D | 5,824,033 | 8,025,221 | 10,357,011 | 12,816,682 | 15,405,594 |
SMBG, T2D | 6,372,572 | 8,782,484 | 11,334,564 | 14,026,731 | 16,858,985 |
Flash, T2D | 22,059,917 | 30,402,307 | 39,236,837 | 48,556,305 | 58,360,713 |
Net budget impact, T2D | 15,687,346 | 21,619,823 | 27,902,273 | 34,529,574 | 41,501,728 |
Net budget impact, T1D and T2D | 21,511,379 | 29,645,043 | 38,259,283 | 47,346,256 | 56,907,322 |
Abbreviations: ODB, Ontario Drug Benefit; SMBG, self-monitoring of blood glucose; T1D, type 1 diabetes; T2D, type 2 diabetes.
Numbers might be inexact because of rounding.
Estimation of target population in Appendix 5.
Cost in flash group was same as cost in the reference case.
Budget impact for type 1 diabetes was same as for reference case.
Flash group combined use of flash glucose monitoring for a given duration and use of self-monitoring of blood glucose for the remaining time. Total cost of self-monitoring of blood glucose was the same as total cost in the reference case.