Table A7:
Target Population Estimates in Scenario Analyses
| Variables | Target Population | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Scenario 1: All patients requiring intensive insulin therapy, with or without ODB coverage | |||||
| Type 1 diabetes | 9,110 | 12,555 | 16,202 | 20,051 | 24,100 |
| Have ODB coverage | 4,281 | 5,899 | 7,613 | 9,421 | 11,324 |
| Do not have ODB coverage or private insurance | 712 | 982 | 1,267 | 1,568 | 1,885 |
| Do not have ODB coverage, but have private insurance | 4,117 | 5,674 | 7,322 | 9,062 | 10,891 |
| Type 2 diabetes | 17,566 | 24,208 | 31,242 | 38,663 | 46,469 |
| Have ODB coverage | 9,189 | 12,664 | 16,344 | 20,226 | 24,310 |
| Do not have ODB coverage or private insurance | 1,236 | 1,703 | 2,198 | 2,720 | 3,269 |
| Do not have ODB coverage, but have private insurance | 7,141 | 9,841 | 12,700 | 15,717 | 18,890 |
|
Scenario 4: All patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes requiring any type of insulin therapy (including, but not limited to, intensive insulin therapy) We assumed that patients with type 2 diabetes requiring any type of insulin therapy would be double the population of patients with type 2 diabetes requiring intensive insulin therapy only | |||||
| Type 2 diabetes | 18,378 | 25,328 | 32,688 | 40,452 | 48,620 |
|
Scenario 5: Adults with diabetes (type 1 or type 2) who require intensive insulin therapy We assumed that 29% (i.e., [7 ÷ 24] × 100%) of people with type 1 diabetes are adults < 25 years of age and 67% of people with type 2 diabetes are adults < 25 years of age | |||||
| Type 1 diabetes | 2,506 | 3,453 | 4,457 | 5,516 | 6,629 |
| Type 2 diabetes | 9,102 | 12,543 | 16,187 | 20,033 | 24,078 |
|
Scenario 6: Includes people at high risk of glycemic variability (not including those with hypoglycemic unawareness for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) We excluded 25% and 10% of type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes with intensive insulin therapy, respectively | |||||
| Type 1 diabetes | 4,940 | 6,807 | 8,784 | 10,870 | 13,066 |
| Type 2 diabetes | 10,338 | 14,247 | 18,387 | 22,754 | 27,349 |
| Scenario 11: Assumed a higher uptake rate, at 50% in year 1 to 70% in year 5 | |||||
| Type 1 diabetes | 14,269 | 16,222 | 18,270 | 20,413 | 22,647 |
| Type 2 diabetes | 30,632 | 34,827 | 39,224 | 43,823 | 48,621 |
| Other scenarios: the target population is the same as in the reference case | |||||
Abbreviation: ODB, Ontario Drug Benefit.