Table 4.
Models of whole course of care and first encounter healing likelihood for venous leg ulcers
| Variable | No. of VLUs = 9,898;aNo. Healed (%) = 7,498 (75.8%) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% Whole-Course Model c-statisticb = 0.636 |
90% First Encounter Model c-statisticb = 0.603 |
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| Wald Orderc | p-value | Wald Orderc | p-value | |
| Wound age at first encounter | 1 | <0.0001 | 1 | <0.0001 |
| Infection/bioburden | 2 | <0.0001 | ||
| Number of previous or concurrent other wounds or ulcers | 3 | <0.0001 | ||
| First wound area | 4 | <0.0001 | 2 | <0.0001 |
| Mobility of patients at arrival—wheelchair | 5 | <0.0001 | 3 | <0.0001 |
| Mobility of patients at arrival—bed bound | 6 | <0.0001 | ||
| Patient admitted for acute hospital stay or emergency department visit | 7 | <0.0001 | ||
All estimates are negative.
a
A 90% development sample was used for model building analysis. First, 10% of VLUs were randomly selected from the study sample to be used for model validation. The remaining 90% (10,596 VLUs) were used in the development sample. However, 698 of these were missing a wound area at first visit before debridement and were excluded from regression analysis. Therefore, 9,898 VLUs were ultimately used in the development sample.
b
c-statistic = performance metric of model discrimination equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
c
Most significant = 1 to least significant.