Table 3.

Multivariable analysis of predictors of overall survival (OS), non-relapse mortality (NRM) and relapse after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in the training and the validation cohorts.

	Training cohorta						Validation cohortb
	n = 589						n = 688
	OS		NRM*		Relapse*		OS		NRM*		Relapse*
	HR 95% CI	P	HR 95% CI	P	HR 95% CI	P	HR 95% CI	P	HR 95% CI	P	HR 95% CI	P
Covariate
Free IL-18 per 1-log2 increasec	1.25 (1.06–1.47)	0.008	1.39 (1.07–1.81)	0.01	1.11 (0.93–1.32)	0.27	1.22 (1.06–1.41)	0.006	1.24 (1.03–1.50)	0.02	1.15 (0.95–1.40)	0.14
Age per 1-year increase	1.01 (1.00–1.02)	0.22	1.03 (1.01–1.05)	0.003	1.00 (0.99–1.01)	0.76	1.01 (1.00–1.02)	0.04	1.01 (1.00–1.03)	0.02	1.00 (0.99–1.02)	0.57
Disease staged
Early/intermediate	Ref	<0.001	Ref	0.53	Ref	<0.001	Ref	<0.001	Ref	<0.001	Ref	0.05
Late	1.60 (1.24–2.05)		1.14 (0.76–1.70)		1.87 (1.41–2.48)		1.72 (1.37–2.16)		1.71 (1.28–2.29)		1.38 (1.01–1.91)
Donor
RD/MUD	Ref	0.03	Ref	0.01	Ref	0.42	Ref	<0.001	Ref	<0.001	Ref	0.76
MMUD	1.38 (1.03–1.83)		1.77 (1.14–2.75)		1.15 (0.82–1.61)		1.57 (1.26–1.97)		1.75 (1.31–2.33)		1.05 (0.78–1.46)
Donor sex
Female	Ref	0.80	Ref	0.77	Ref	0.70	Ref	0.35	Ref	0.95	Ref	0.78
Male	0.97 (0.74–1.25)		0.94 (0.63–1.41)		1.06 (0.79–1.44)		0.90 (0.72–1.13)		0.99 (0.74–1.33)		1.04 (0.77–1.42)
Patient sex
Female	Ref	0.74	Ref	0.80	Ref	0.12	Ref	0.46	Ref	0.59	Ref	0.47
Male	0.96 (0.75–1.23)		1.05 (0.71–1.56)		0.80 (0.60–1.06)		0.92 (0.74–1.14)		0.93 (0.70–1.22)		0.90 (0.67–1.20)
Diagnosise
Myeloid	Ref	0.27	Ref	0.13	Ref	0.07	Ref	<0.001	Ref	0.001	Ref	0.11
Lymphoid	1.17 (0.89–1.53)		1.38 (0.91–2.11)		1.33 (0.98–1.81)		1.52 (1.21–1.93)		1.65 (1.22–2.23)		1.30 (0.95–1.78)
ATG treatment
No	Ref	0.21	Ref	0.005	Ref	0.39	Ref	0.06	Ref	0.02	Ref	0.55
Yes	0.83 (0.63–1.11)		0.53 (0.34–0.83)		0.87 (0.63–1.20)		0.81 (0.65–1.01)		0.72 (0.54–0.95)		0.91 (0.68–1.22)
Conditioningf
MAC	Ref	0.04	Ref	0.003	Ref	0.70	Ref	0.03	Ref	0.02	Ref	0.59
RIC	0.70 (0.51–0.98)		0.46 (0.27–0.77)		0.93 (0.63–1.37)		1.41 (1.04–1.92)		1.72 (1.11–2.64)		0.90 (0.62–1.32)

Abbreviations: ATG, antithymocyte globulin; IL-18, interleukin-18; MAC: myeloablative conditioning; MMUD, mismatched unrelated donor; MUD, matched unrelated donor; RD, related donor; RIC: reduced intensity conditioning.

^⁎Cause-specific hazards from a competing risks analysis for relapse and NRM.

^aNumber of events: OS, n = 268; NRM, n = 110; relapse, n = 206.

^bNumber of events: OS, n = 375; NRM, n = 223; relapse, n = 203.

^cDoubling of serum pre-transplant free IL-18 concentration.

^dAccording to Gratwohl et al. [17].

^eMyeloid: acute myeloid leukaemia, myelodysplastic and myeloproliferative syndromes; lymphoid: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, lymphoma and multiple myeloma.

^fAccording to Bacigalupo et al. [34] and Bornhäuser et al. [35].