Table 4. Univariate and multivariate analyses predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading.
| Predictor | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC of individual predictor variables | OR; p-value | Base model OR; p-value | Base model with %p2PSA; p-value | Base model with PHI; p-value | |
| Age | 0.480 | 0.825; 0.842 | |||
| Prostate volume | 0.510 | 1.005; 0.924 | |||
| Clinical stage | 0.583 | 2.492; 0.031 | 1.852;0.139 | 1.153; 0.816 | 1.236; 0.773 |
| Percentage of positive biopsy core | 0.602 | 3.140; 0.025 | 1.125; 0.452 | 1.109; 0.529 | 1.298; 0.372 |
| PSA density | 0.559 | 1.924; 0.093 | |||
| tPSA | 0.608 | 1.082; <0.001 | 0.976;0.583 | 0.911; 0.480 | 0.915; 0.036 |
| fPSA | 0.541 | 1.023; 0.506 | |||
| %fPSA | 0.392 | 0.001; 0.019 | 0.001;0.046 | 0.001; 0.037 | 0.001; 0.041 |
| p2PSA | 0.716 | 0.001; 1.102 | |||
| %p2PSA | 0.726 | 2.691; <0.001 | 2.716; <0.001 | ||
| PHI | 0.749 | 1.029; <0.001 | 1.032; <0.001 | ||
| AUC of multivariate models | 0.725 | 0.833 | 0.856 | ||
| Gain in predictive accuracy (%, p-value) | 10.8% (<0.001) | 13.1% (<0.001) | |||
AUC, area under the curve; OR, odds ratio; PHI, Prostate Health Index; PSA, prostate-specific antigen; tPSA, total PSA; fPSA, free PSA; %fPSA, the percentage of free PSA to total PSA; %p2PSA, the percentage of p2PSA to free PSA.
The AUC reflects the predictive values of individual variables (columns) and of the multivariate models for predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading.