Table 2.
Event attribution results for many extreme fire risk metrics
| Event | p 0 | p 1 | PN | PS | RR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Season 90th percentile | |||||
| FWI > 30 | < 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.83 | 0.03 | 5.97 |
| FFMC > 91 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.66 | 0.11 | 2.95 |
| DMC > 60 | 0.23 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 1.55 |
| DC > 425 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1.45 |
| ISI > 15 | < 0.01 | < 0.01 | - | - | - |
| BUI > 90 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 1.78 |
| Significant spread potential | |||||
| > 38 days | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 3.90 |
| > 25% | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.65 | 0.08 | 2.82 |
| ROS p90 > 18 [C2] | < 0.01 | < 0.01 | 1.00 | < 0.01 | 109 |
| Fire Intensity Classes | |||||
| > 38 days Class 5/6 [C2] | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.24 | 2.22 |
| > 76 days Class 5/6 [C2] | < 0.01 | < 0.01 | 0.96 | < 0.01 | 22.52 |
| HFI p90 > 10,000 [C2] | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.63 | 0.16 | 2.72 |
| Fire Season | |||||
| Fire season starts by 15 Apr | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.11 | 2.10 |
| Fire season ends after 31 Sep | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.65 | 0.18 | 2.86 |
| Fire season > 165 days | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.76 | 0.16 | 4.12 |
Values are rounded to two decimal places for display purposes. See Table S1 for uncertainties. Attribution metrics are not calculated for ISI as the extreme threshold exceeds any regional values realized in either the ALL or NAT simulations