Figure 2.
a-d: (a) Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) calculated by UDCA Response Score (URS) in the derivation cohort, using stratified bootstrapping to estimate the confidence interval (AUROC = 0.87, CI 0.86 - 0.89); (b) The predicted versus observed probability of response in the derivation cohort. ‘NEVER’ means that the calibration belt never goes above or under the bisector; this suggests no evidence of miscalibration; (c) AUROC curve for the prediction of treatment response calculated by URS in the external validation cohort (AUROC = 0.83 CI 0.79 - 0.87); (d) The predicted versus observed probability of response in the external validation cohort.
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve