Table 3.
Common causes of mortality as identified via the three modeling frameworks
| Variable name | LMM estimate | COX ph estimate |
COX ph p‐value |
Elastic net estimate | Horseshoe estimate | Horseshoe shrinkage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex*** | — | 1.76 (M) | 0.015 | 0.21 (M) | 0.12 (M) | 0.81 |
| Departure weight | — | 0.32 | 0.40 | — | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| Departure date | — | 0.09 | 0.79 | — | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Departure drift rate | — | 0.16 | 0.68 | — | 0.01 | 0.87 |
| Max speed | ||||||
| Intercept*** | 1.29 (0.12) | 1.38 | 0.003 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.85 |
| Slope | −0.10 (0.099) | 0.43 | 0.23 | — | 0.02 | 0.88 |
| Distance swam | ||||||
| Intercept*** | 51.30 (7.45) | 1.28 | 0.002 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.83 |
| Slope | −5.98 (5.09) | 0.48 | 0.16 | — | 0.05 | 0.87 |
| Current deviation | ||||||
| Intercept | 91.58 (10.75) | −0.19 | 0.64 | — | −0.01 | 0.90 |
| Slope | 5.31 (11.12) | −0.29 | 0.51 | — | −0.03 | 0.89 |
| Dive depth | ||||||
| Intercept | 135.06 (29.93) | −0.50 | 0.16 | — | −0.02 | 0.86 |
| Slope | 20.60 (13.54) | −0.62 | 0.11 | — | −0.03 | 0.87 |
| Dive duration | ||||||
| Intercept | 447.43 (86.26) | −0.32 | 0.39 | — | −0.00 | 0.87 |
| Slope** | 35.21 (34.98) | −0.87 | 0.03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | 0.86 |
| Scaled bottom duration | ||||||
| Intercept | 0.57 (0.03) | −0.17 | 0.64 | — | −0.00 | 0.88 |
| Slope | −0.02 (0.02) | −0.37 | 0.33 | — | −0.02 | 0.88 |
| PrCA rate | ||||||
| Intercept | 0.05 (0.01) | −0.76 | 0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | 0.86 |
| Slope** | −0.002 (0.007) | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.83 |
| Scaled surface interval | ||||||
| Intercept | 0.15 (0.03) | 0.36 | 0.36 | — | −0.00 | 0.87 |
| Slope | 0.003 (0.005) | 0.66 | 0.13 | — | 0.01 | 0.90 |
| Swim effort | ||||||
| Intercept | 14.00 (1.64) | 0.13 | 0.73 | — | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Slope** | 0.01 (0.99) | 0.70 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| Drift rate change | ||||||
| Intercept | −0.005 (0.006) | −0.85 | 0.03 | — | −0.02 | 0.87 |
| Slope | 0.006 (0.005) | −0.55 | 0.18 | — | −0.05 | 0.86 |
| Max wind | ||||||
| Intercept | 14.51 (0.50) | −0.13 | 0.73 | — | 0.01 | 0.89 |
| Slope | −0.09 (0.35) | −0.39 | 0.33 | — | −0.01 | 0.90 |
| Max wave height | ||||||
| Intercept | 4.63 (0.19) | −0.12 | 0.80 | — | −0.00 | 0.91 |
| Slope | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Sea surface temperature | ||||||
| Intercept** | 2.99 (0.71) | −0.57 | 0.07 | −0.10 | −0.06 | 0.85 |
| Slope | −0.29 (0.47) | 0.36 | 0.35 | — | 0.05 | 0.86 |
| Max EKE | ||||||
| Intercept** | 0.05 (0.02) | −0.48 | 0.15 | −0.08 | −0.08 | 0.85 |
| Slope | −0.003 (0.02) | 0.11 | 0.75 | — | 0.02 | 0.88 |
For each potential predictor of survival: (a) coefficient estimates from linear mixed‐effects models (LMMs; standard deviation around random effects in brackets), (b) Cox ph estimates, (c) p‐values from analysis of variance on Cox ph tests, (d) elastic net parameter estimates, (e) parameter estimates from horseshoe analyses, and (f) proportion of shrinkage applied to each horseshoe parameter estimate. Note that for Cox ph, elastic net and horseshoe estimates, a positive value means a decrease in survival with increasing LMM coefficient. Variables selected by two (**) or thee (***) multiple methods are highlighted in bold with selected values underlined.