Table 3.
Best Independent Early Predictors of 30‐Year EDSS >3.5 and ≤3.5. All models include EDSS 10 at or before 30 years.
| Predictor | Odds Ratio (95% CI) | p | Predictor Combinations | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30‐year EDSS >3.5, best independent predictors up to 1 year a | ||||||
| Baseline infratentorial lesion count, ≥1 vs 0 | 16.8 (2.0–139.7) | 0.009 | 0 | 0 | ≥1 | ≥1 |
| 1‐year deep white matter lesion count, ≥1 vs 0 | 6.7 (1.7–26.0) | 0.006 | 0 | ≥1 | 0 | ≥1 |
| Model‐predicted probabilities for 30‐year EDSS >3.5 (95% CI) | 13% (0–26) | 49% (33–64) | —b | 94% (83–100) | ||
| Model‐predicted probabilities for 30‐year EDSS ≤3.5c | 87% | 51% | — | 6% | ||
| 30‐year EDSS >3.5, best independent predictors up to 5 years d | ||||||
| Baseline infratentorial lesion count, ≥1 vs 0 | 8.0 (1.5–41.4) | 0.013 | 0 | 0 | ≥1 | ≥1 |
| 5‐year deep white matter lesion count, >5 vs ≤5 | 5.1 (1.7–15.6) | 0.004 | ≤5 | >5 | ≤5 | >5 |
| Model‐predicted probabilities for 30‐year EDSS >3.5 (95% CI) | 18% (5–30) | 52% (36–71) | 63% (22–100) | 90% (76–100) | ||
| Model‐predicted probabilities for 30‐year EDSS ≤3.5 | 82% | 48% | 37% | 10% | ||
All models include EDSS = 10 at or before 30 years.
a
Model n = 80. Overall model accuracy using 0.5 probability cutoff (95% CI) = 71% (60–81).
b
There were no subjects with this lesion combination.
c
These probabilities and their CIs are 100% minus the >3.5 probabilities.
d
Model n = 79. Overall model accuracy using 0.5 probability cutoff (95% CI) = 75% (64–84).
CI = confidence interval; EDSS = Expanded Disability Status Scale.