Table 4.
Best Independent Early Predictors of 30‐Year SPMS Status. All models include EDSS 10 at or before 30 years.
| Predictor | Odds Ratio (95% CI) | p | Predictor Combinations | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30‐year SPMS, best independent predictors up to 1 year a | ||||||
| Baseline infratentorial lesion count, ≥1 vs 0 | 26.0 (3.1–215.0) | 0.003 | 0 | 0 | ≥1 | ≥1 |
| 1‐year deep white matter lesion count, ≥1 vs 0 | 8.6 (1.8–41.0) | 0.007 | 0 | ≥1 | 0 | ≥1 |
| Model‐predicted probabilities for 30‐year SPMS (95% CI) | 7% (0–16) | 38% (23–53) | — | 94% (83–100) | ||
| 30‐year SPMS, best independent predictors up to 5 years b | ||||||
| 5‐year deep white matter lesion count, >5 vs ≤5 | 5.3 (1.7–16.6) | 0.005 | ≤5 | ≤5 | >5 | >5 |
| EDSS score change from nadir to 5‐year, ≥2 vs <2 | 31.1 (3.5–279.9) | 0.002 | <2 | ≥2 | <2 | ≥2 |
| Model‐predicted probabilities for 30‐year SPMS (95% CI) | 11% (2–21) | 80% (46–100) | 41% (24–57) | 96% (86–100) | ||
All models include EDSS = 10 at or before 30 years.
a
Model n = 89. Overall model accuracy using 0.5 probability cutoff (95% CI) = 79% (69–87).
b
Model n = 85. Overall model accuracy using 0.5 probability cutoff (95% CI) = 78% (67–86).
CI = confidence interval; EDSS = Expanded Disability Status Scale; SPMS = secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.