Table 1. Modelled scenarios used in the transmission model.

	Scenario	Description
1	Business as usual	•   Continue all interventions at 2015 levels from 2016 through 2030
2	Reverse scenario 1	•   Business as usual •   IRS activities ceased
3	Reverse scenario 2	•   Reverse scenario 1 •   Distribution of new LLINs ceased
4	Reverse scenario 3	•   Reverse scenario 2 •   Treatment rates reduced by 50%
5	Universal coverage	•   Business as usual •   Coverage of population at risk with test and treat increased from 2017 onwards in a linear fashion    over eight years to 80% by 2025 •   Quinine is switched to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease in 2017
6	IRS	•   Universal coverage •   IRS coverage in 2017 doubled in a linear fashion over eight years
7	Effective usage	•   Universal coverage •   Effectiveness of LLINs increased •   Surveillance increased
8	New P. vivax treatment	•   Effective usage •   Replace primaquine with a new P. vivax treatment
9	New LLINs	•   New P. vivax treatment •   Life of LLINs doubled
10	New P. falciparum treatment	•   New LLINs •   First-line Artemisin based Combiantion Therapy (ACT) replaced with new candidate for     P. falciparum treatment
	Assumption	Description
A	Artemisinin and ACT resistance	5% probability of treatment failure from ACTs across all countries is constant until 2018 and then increased to 30% through 2025
B	MDA	Five annual rounds of MDA at 50% coverage from 2018 starting four months before the peak of the transmission season targeted at both species
C	LLINs	Scaling up LLINs to 80% effective coverage deployed in a 3-year cycle (50%, 25% and 25%)