Table 4. Key epidemiological parameters estimated in this study from longitudinal swab data on third generation cephalosporin-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae sensu lato from a neotatal intensive care unit from a Children’s Hospital in Cambodia.
| Parameter | Method | Estimate | Uncertainty interval |
Key Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily risk of acquisition for neonates |
Bayesian regression model |
0.15 | 0.091, 0.19 (IQR*) |
Culture diagnostic 100% sensitive |
| Force of infection from one colonised infant |
Bayesian transmission model |
0.016 | 0.0093, 0.027 (95% CrI†) |
Expected values from transmission model 4 |
| Swab sensitivity (1) | Negatives following a positive swab Beta conjugate prior |
0.90 | 0.88, 0.92 (95% CrI†) |
All positives are false negatives Beta(1,7) prior |
| Swab sensitivity (2) | Negatives following a positive swab Beta conjugate prior |
0.93 | 0.91, 0.94 (95% CrI†) |
Three consecutive negatives are a true decolonisation Beta(1,7) prior |
| Environmental half life‡ |
Bayesian transmission model |
3.6 hours | 2.4, 7.6 hours (95% CrI*) |
Exponential decay Normal(1, 2) prior |
| Ward reproduction number RA) |
Agent-based simulation |
0.65 | 0.36, 1.1 (95% interval§) |
Ward size of 8 susceptible neonates |
* Interquartile range (IQR) taken from distribution of daily risk of acquisition (Figure 2B). † Credible interval (CrI). ‡ Inverse rate of decay of environmental contamination, as estimated in transmission model 3, multiplied by ln(2). § 95% of simulated values fell within this interval.