Table 1.
Author, year, location, funding | Study design, purpose, period of data collection | Population | Number seroconverted/number analysed, number of seroconverters by exposure group, overall HIV incidence | Exposure | Comparison | Results (point estimate, CI) | Strengths | Weaknesses | Quality |
Saracco 1993,11 Italy Ministry of Health and National Research Council of Italy |
Cohort; determine incidence and risk factors for male to female sexual HIV transmission, 1987–1991 | 343 seronegative women with HIV-infected male partners, recruited from 16 hospital and outpatient clinic locations; 529.6 person-years follow-up | 19/343 after mean 14.1 months 1/1 IUD and no condom use seroconverted 0/1 IUD and condom use seroconverted 0/22 OC users seroconverted (11 reported always using condom) 3.6 per 100 person-years |
IUD (type not specified) | No clear comparison group; seroconversions reported for OC users | No comparative estimates given | Serodiscordant couples Study interval 6 months |
No comparative estimates provided and no clear comparison group No adjustment for condom use No time-varying analyses Follow-up rates not reported or unclear |
Unlikely to inform the primary question |
Sinei 1996,12 Kenya US NIH and USAID, WHO, Ortho Pharmaceutical Corp. |
Cohort; pilot study to examine relationship between contraceptive methods and HIV transmission, 1990–1992 | 1537 seronegative women recruited from a family planning clinic | 16 seroconversions by 12 months: IUD users: 7 DMPA users: 2 OC users: 5 12-month cumulative incidence rates (95% CI) per 100: Overall: 2.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2): IUD: 1.66 (95% CI 0.4 to 2.9) DMPA: 1.92 (95% CI 0.0 to 4.6) OC: 4.45 (95% CI 0.5 to 8.4) |
IUD (type not specified) | No clear comparison group, but separate seroconversion rates provided for DMPA and OC users | No comparative estimates given | Study interval of 3 months | No comparative estimates provided and no clear comparison group No adjustment for condom use No time-varying analyses Low follow-up rates (29% overall) |
Unlikely to inform the primary question |
Kapiga 1998,13 Tanzania Rockefeller Foundation, US NIH |
Cohort, to study the incidence of HIV associated with contraceptive methods, 1992–1995 | 1370 (of an original cohort of 2471) women recruited from family planning clinics; 2236 person-years follow-up |
75/1370 seroconverted 3.4 per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.6 to 4.1) IUD: 8/162 |
IUD (copper T loop specified); ever-use during the follow-up period | No IUD use (included those using hormonal methods, non-hormonal methods or no method) | IUD use vs no use: adjRR 0.80 (95% CI 0.38 to 1.69) Duration of IUD use 1–12 months vs 0 months: adjRR 1.22 (95% CI 0.44 to 3.37) >13 months vs 0 months: adjRR 0.59 (95% CI 0.21 to 1.66) |
No adjustment for condom use in the main model; authors state in text that results were not materially altered when excluding condom users or adjusting for condom use No time-varying analysis of IUD exposure (exposure measured as ever-use during the follow-up period) Comparison group included all non-IUD users Study interval unclear; HIV testing only occurred at baseline and final interview 44.5% loss to follow-up |
Unlikely to inform the primary question | |
Lavreys 2004,14 Kenya US NIH |
Cohort, to assess the association between contraceptive use and HIV acquisition, 1993–2003 | 1498 seronegative women, recruited from a clinic for sex workers, Mombasa, 1272 returned for follow-up; providing 2931 person-years follow-up; 15 428 follow-up visits | 248/1272 Number seroconverted by group not reported |
IUD (type not specified) | No contraceptive method or tubal ligation | adjHR 1.1 (95% CI 0.4 to 3.0) | Adjusted for condom use Time-varying analysis of contraception exposure and confounders Clearly defined comparison group Study interval 1 month |
Follow-up rates not reported or unclear Potential for residual confounding |
Informative but with important limitations |
Hofmeyr 2017,15 South Africa Effective Care Research Unit, East London, South Africa |
RCT; to compare rates of incident HIV among women using progestogen-only injectables and those using Cu-IUDs; 2009–2012 | 2493 enrolled, 1246 in injectable arm and 1247 in IUD arm, recruited from women attending pregnancy termination services at two hospitals in South Africa | ITT analysis 20/656 (3%) injectable arm 22/634 (3.5%) IUD arm Median follow-up time: 19–20 months |
Cu-IUD | DMPA and NET-EN together and separately | ITT analysis Injectables vs IUD RR 0.88 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.59) Separate ITT results for different injectables not given Per protocol analysis Injectables vs IUD RR 0.94 (95% CI 0.52 to 1.71) DMPA vs IUD RR 1.01 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.86) NET-EN vs IUD RR 0.58 (95% CI 0.14 to 2.42) |
Appropriate randomisation procedures, with good concealment of allocations at point of assignment Clearly defined comparison group |
No measurement or adjustment for condom use (or other potential confounders) No information on discontinuation or switching, or time-varying analysis of contraceptive use 19–20 month median interval for HIV testing 37% of follow-up HIV test results by self-report |
Unlikely to inform the primary question |
Palanee-Phillips 2019,9 South Africa NIH |
Cohort; from RCT that examined effectiveness of dapivirine ring to prevent HIV; 2012–2015 | 1136 HIV-seronegative women from South African clinical study sites; 1771 person-years follow-up |
95/1136 seroconverted Median follow-up: 1.6 years HIV incidence/100 woman-years: Overall: 5.6 DMPA: 5.79 NET-EN: 6.22 Implant: 1.93 Cu-IUD: 4.48 |
Cu-IUD | DMPA NET-EN Implant |
Cu-IUD vs DMPA:adjHR 1.10 (95% CI 0.53 to 2.27)* Cu-IUD vs NET-EN: adjHR 0.98 (95% CI 0.47 to 2.04)* Cu-IUD vs implant: adjHR 2.17 (95% CI 0.59 to 7.69)* Cu-IUD vs all three hormonal methods together: adjHR 1.11 (95% CI 0.57 to 2.22)* |
Adjusted for condom use. Time-varying analysis of contraception exposure, condom use, and other relevant confounders Clearly defined comparison groups Monthly intersurvey interval |
No information on follow-up time or attrition by study group Potential for residual/ unmeasured confounding |
Informative but with important limitations |
Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes (ECHO) Trial Consortium, 2019,1
12 sites in Eswatini, Kenya, South Africa, Zambia Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID and PEPFAR, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, South African Medical Research Council, UNFPA, Government of South Africa |
RCT, 2015–2019 | 7830 HIV-seronegative women seeking contraception (7829 randomised) | 397/7715 seroconverted HIV incidence/100 woman-years Overall: 3.81 DMPA-IM: 4.19 LNG implant: 3.31 Cu-IUD: 3.94 Follow-up time: up to 18 months |
Cu-IUD | DMPA-IM LNG-implant |
ITT analysis, Cu-IUD vs DMPA-IM: HR 0.96 (96% CI 0.75 to 1.22)* Cu-IUD vs LNG implant: HR1.18 (96% CI 0.91 to 1.53) Continuous use analysis, Cu-IUD vs DMPA-IM: adjHR 0.91 (96% CI 0.69 to 1.19)* Cu-IUD vs LNG implant: adjHR 1.18 (96% CI 0.90 to 1.55) No effect modification by age or HSV-2 status, and no substantial differences by several other factors |
Publication of full trial protocol16
Clear randomisation and allocation procedures Good adherence to allocated treatments (99% uptake; continuation 92% of follow-up time), with limited discontinuation or change of contraceptive method |
Patients and clinicians not blinded; however, study team made concerted efforts to not provide different information/counselling to women in DMPA-IM group vs other groups | Informative with few limitations |
*Estimates are for the inverse associations of those reported by the authors.
adjHR, adjusted hazard ratio; adjRR, adjusted relative risk; CI, confidence interval; Cu, copper; DMPA, depot medroxyprogesterone acetate; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus;HSV, herpes simplex virus; IM, intramuscular; ITT, intention-to-treat;IUD, intrauterine device; LNG, levonorgestrel; NET-EN, norethisterone ethanate; OC, oral contraceptive;PEPFAR, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief; RCT, randomised controlled trial; UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund; USAID, United States Agency for International Development; US NIH, United States National Institutes of Health; WHO, World Health Organization.