Table 3.
Borderline Symptoms (Measured on a Continuous Scale) of 12-Year-Olds Predict Poor Outcomes at Age 18
| Age 18 outcome | Model 1a | Model 2b | Model 3c |
|---|---|---|---|
| Personality | β (95% CI) | β (95% CI) | β (95% CI) |
| Openness to experience | −.08 (−0.13, −0.03) | −.02 (−0.08, 0.04) | .00 (−0.10, 0.11) |
| Conscientiousness | −.16 (−0.21, −0.12) | −.09 (−.14, −.03) | .02 (−.11, .14) |
| Extraversion | .06 (0.02, 0.11) | .13 (0.07, 0.18) | .02 (−0.11, 0.14) |
| Agreeableness | −.28 (−0.32, −0.23) | −.17 (−0.22, −0.11) | −.08 (−0.17, 0.03) |
| Neuroticism | .23 (0.19, 0.28) | .19 (0.13, 0.25) | m.09 (−0.03, 0.22) |
| Poor mental health | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) |
| Conduct disorder | 1.41 (1.31, 1.51) | 1.17 (1.05, 1.31) | 1.02 (0.81, 1.29) |
| Alcohol use disorder | 1.12 (1.05, 1.19) | 1.08 (0.99, 1.17) | 0.99 (0.81, 1.22) |
| Cannabis use disorder | 1.44 (1.24, 1.66) | 1.09 (0.89, 1.32) | 1.04 (0.73, 1.49) |
| Depression | 1.18 (1.09, 1.28) | 1.09 (0.99, 1.20) | 0.95 (0.79, 1.15) |
| Generalized anxiety disorder | 1.13 (0.97, 1.31) | 1.02 (0.83, 1.23) | 1.32 (0.90, 1.92) |
| Posttraumatic stress disorder | 1.26 (1.05, 1.52) | 1.15 (0.90, 1.47) | 1.61 (0.86, 2.99) |
| Suicide attempts or self-harm | 1.38 (1.27, 1.50) | 1.26 (1.13, 1.40) | 1.10 (0.89, 1.35) |
| Service use | 1.31 (1.21, 1.41) | 1.26 (1.14, 1.40) | 1.18 (0.99, 1.40) |
| Coinformant report of poor mental health | 1.36 (1.29, 1.44) | 1.21 (1.12, 1.31) | 1.00 (0.87, 1.14) |
| Poor functioning | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) |
| Low educational qualifications | 1.40 (1.32, 1.49) | 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) | 1.13 (0.93, 1.38) |
| NEET status | 1.35 (1.21, 1.50) | 0.99 (0.86, 1.13) | 1.12 (0.74, 1.68) |
| Cigarette smoking | 1.40 (1.33, 1.49) | 1.19 (1.09, 1.30) | 1.00 (0.89, 1.11) |
| Risky sexual behavior | 1.29 (1.22, 1.37) | 1.17 (1.07, 1.26) | 0.93 (0.78, 1.11) |
| Social isolation | 1.23 (1.14, 1.33) | 1.07 (0.97, 1.18) | 1.14 (0.95, 1.37) |
| Low life satisfaction | 1.27 (1.17, 1.36) | 1.06 (0.96, 1.17) | 1.14 (0.95, 1.37) |
| Official crime record | 1.54 (1.40, 1.69) | 1.19 (1.03, 1.36) | 1.02 (0.84, 1.26) |
| Adolescent victimization | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) |
| Maltreatment | 1.89 (1.61, 2.22) | 1.47 (1.09, 1.98) | 1.18 (0.95, 1.46) |
| Neglect | 1.84 (1.56, 2.17) | 1.63 (1.23, 2.16) | 1.10 (0.61, 1.98) |
| Sexual victimization | 1.45 (1.22, 1.72) | 1.00 (0.77, 1.29) | 1.30 (0.80, 2.10) |
| Family violence | 1.30 (1.18, 1.44) | 1.14 (1.00, 1.31) | 0.85 (0.66, 1.11) |
| Peer victimization | 1.28 (1.17, 1.39) | 1.17 (1.05, 1.31) | 1.07 (0.87, 1.31) |
| Cyber-victimization | 1.32 (1.16, 1.50) | 1.27 (1.07, 1.51) | 1.15 (0.73, 1.80) |
| Crime victimization | 1.25 (1.16, 1.34) | 1.16 (1.05, 1.29) | 1.01 (0.84, 1.22) |
Note: Boldface type indicates statistically significant estimates (p > .05). All outcome measures are described in Table 2. β = standardized regression coefficient; IRR = incidence rate ratio (interpretable as risk ratios); NEET = not in education, employment, or training.
Model 1: Analyses adjust for sex. For models additionally adjusting for baseline measures where possible, see Table S1, available online.
Model 2: Analyses additionally adjust for age 12 behavioral and emotional problems.
Model 3: Estimates are within-monozygotic-twin-pair estimates, ie, analyses adjust for the influence of genes and environments shared between genetically identical twins growing up in the same family.