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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: AIDS Care. 2019 Oct 16;32(3):343–353. doi: 10.1080/09540121.2019.1679704

Figure.2: Compare the model-predicted and historical trends (surveillance statistics) among four groups of men who have sex with men in China (2005-2015).

Figure.2:

NOTE: Figure 2 compares 2005-2015 surveillance data of the number of new HIV cases in Beijing (red line) with the numbers predicted by our model (blue line); Scm: susceptible circumcised, Scp: susceptible uncircumcised, Ichp: infected circumcised, Ichm: infected uncircumcised; t: in years (from the year of 2005 to the year of 2015). In Figure 2, we presented the prediction model that we used for further calculations; the predicted and historical lines among four groups of MSM (susceptible circumcised [Scm], susceptible uncircumcised [Scp], infected circumcised [Ichp], and infected uncircumcised [Ichm]) overlapped well with each other. After this initial model calibration, we used the numbers generated by the model for 2015 (e.g., ρ−= 0.0099861, ρ+= 0.0093921, Scm=362,476, Scp=6,970, Ichp=59, and Ichm=3,129) as the baseline initial state to predict numbers of infected and susceptible MSM from 2016 to 2026 (see Appendix 1 for detailed formulas).