Variable risk options (ROs) | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability (%) | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 75 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 |
Outcome | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 10 |
EV | 3 | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10.5 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 22.5 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 9.5 |
50% risky alternatives (RAs) | ||||||||||||||||
Low-EV options | ||||||||||||||||
Outcome | 2 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 38 | 41 | 28 | 30 | 14 | 15 |
EV | 1 | 4 | 5.5 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8.5 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 20.5 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 7.5 |
High-EV options | ||||||||||||||||
Outcome | 10 | 16 | 19 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 46 | 49 | 36 | 38 | 22 | 23 |
EV | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12.5 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 24.5 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 11.5 |
Sure alternatives (SAs) | ||||||||||||||||
Low-EV options | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 7 |
High-EV options | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 25 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 9 |
Note: outcomes and expected values (EVs) reflect dollar amounts ($). Low- or high-EV for the alternatives is relative to the RO option.