Table 2. Changes in 30-Day Mortality Among Veterans Admitted With Heart Failure and Pneumonia^a.

Adjustment Variables	30-Day Mortality, %
	Measure	Heart Failure	Pneumonia
Adjusted for age and sex	First yearb	6.71	11.48
	Last year	6.19	10.02
	Quarterly change, %	−0.035 (−0.058 to −0.012)	−0.053 (−0.082 to −0.024)
	AUC	0.657 (0.651 to 0.662)	0.638 (0.633 to 0.642)
Adjusted for age, sex, and claims-based comorbid conditions	First year	6.90	11.85
	Last year	6.01	9.67
	Quarterly change, %	−0.051 (−0.074 to −0.027)	−0.084 (−0.111 to −0.056)
	AUC	0.689 (0.684 to 0.694)	0.709 (0.705 to 0.713)
Adjusted for age, sex, and clinical covariates	First year	6.48	11.19
	Last year	6.39	10.46
	Quarterly change, %	−0.017 (−0.039 to 0.006)	−0.026 (−0.052 to 0.001)
	AUC	0.777 (0.772 to 0.781)	0.750 (0.745 to 0.754)

Abbreviation: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

^aPoint estimates (95% CIs) for quarterly changes were calculated using the slope of the linear regression between admission quarter and adjusted rates. Point estimates for clinical models represent average slopes for the linear regression between admission quarter and the adjusted rates among the imputed data sets, whereas standard error estimates used for 95% CIs are the combination of within- and between-imputation variance. We report the AUC (95% CIs) for the first imputed data set for the model with clinical covariates.

^bFirst year, January 2009 to December 2009; Last year, October 2014 to September 2015.