Table 2.

Association between physical activity trajectories and subsequent risk of CVD events and all-cause and CVD mortality (n=3231)

Outcome	Trajectory group	N	No. of events	Person-years	Rate per 1000 person-years	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
						HR (95% CI)
Deaths (all cause)	Low decreasing	733	494	8402.2	58.8	Referent	Referent	Referent	Referent
	Light stable	1649	869	22 216.5	39.1	0.73(0.65 to 0.81)	0.78(0.69 to 0.87)	0.80(0.71 to 0.90)	0.83(0.74 to 0.94)
	Moderate increasing	849	372	12 034.9	30.9	0.64(0.55 to 0.73)	0.71(0.61 to 0.81)	0.74(0.64 to 0.85)	0.76(0.66 to 0.88)
	p trend					<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
CVD mortality*	Low decreasing	733	198	8402.2	23.6	Referent	Referent	Referent	Referent
	Light stable	1649	297	22 216.5	13.4	0.64(0.53 to 0.77)	0.67(0.56 to 0.81)	0.69(0.57 to 0.84)	0.76(0.62 to 0.91)
	Moderate increasing	849	115	12 034.9	9.6	0.53(0.42 to 0.67)	0.58(0.45 to 0.74)	0.61(0.48 to 0.78)	0.64(0.50 to 0.82)
	p trend					<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
All CVD events (fatal +non-fatal)†	Low decreasing	733	252	7901.3	31.9	Referent	Referent	Referent	Referent
	Light stable	1649	470	20 692.5	22.7	0.80(0.69 to 0.94)	0.83(0.70 to 0.97)	0.85 (0.72 to 1.00)	0.89 (0.75 to 1.04)
	Moderate increasing	849	198	11 338.1	17.5	0.70(0.57 to 0.85)	0.74(0.60 to 0.90)	0.77(0.63 to 0.94)	0.78(0.64 to 0.95)
	p trend					<0.001	0.002	0.009	0.015
CHD events (fatal+non-fatal)‡	Low decreasing	733	146	8190.7	17.8	Referent	Referent	Referent	Referent
	Light stable	1649	245	21 531.7	11.4	0.73(0.59 to 0.91)	0.75(0.60 to 0.93)	0.77(0.62 to 0.95)	0.80(0.64 to 1.00)
	Moderate increasing	849	98	11 672.4	8.4	0.63(0.49 to 0.83)	0.67(0.51 to 0.88)	0.70(0.53 to 0.92)	0.71(0.54 to 0.93)
	p trend					0.001	0.004	0.009	0.012
Stroke events (fatal+non-fatal)§	Low decreasing	733	76	8098.6	9.4	Referent	Referent	Referent	Referent
	Light stable	1649	186	21 308.6	8.7	0.99 (0.75 to 1.31)	1.04 (0.79 to 1.38)	1.08 (0.82 to 1.43)	1.10 (0.83 to 1.46)
	Moderate increasing	849	84	11 687.7	7.2	0.87 (0.63 to 1.20)	0.92 (0.66 to 1.28)	0.96 (0.69 to 1.34)	0.98 (0.70 to 1.37)
	p trend					0.368	0.573	0.773	0.851

Model 1, adjusted for age, occupational class, marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking status, region, previous diagnosis of MI, stroke or diabetes.

Model 2, Model 1+LDL, HDL, systolic blood pressure, insulin, waist circumference and FEV₁.

Model 3, Model 2+IL-6 and vWf.

Model 4, Model 3+Hs TnT and NT-proBNP.

Boldface indicates statistical significance (p<0.05).

*Fatal CVD was defined as ICD-9 codes 390–459.

†All CVD events included all fatal CVD (ICD-9 codes 390–459) and non-fatal MI and stroke as described above.

‡Fatal myocardial infarction (MI) was defined as ICD-9 codes 410–414. Non-fatal MI was defined as heart attack or coronary thrombosis, in accordance with the WHO diagnostic criteria.

§Fatal stroke was defined as ICD-9 codes 430–438. Non-fatal stroke events included those that caused a neurological deficit for >24 hours.

CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, stroke/MI; MI, myocardial infarction.