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. 2019 Dec 2;63(3):537–548. doi: 10.1007/s00125-019-05050-1

Table 2.

 Association of MPA and VPA with incident type 2 diabetesa (N = 9987)

Activity level Diabetes incidence (n cases/N total) Unadjusted Adjusted for sociodemographic and behavioural variablesb Additionally adjusted for BMI Fully adjustedc
HR (95% CI) p value HR (95% CI) p value HR (95% CI) p value HR (95% CI) p value
MPA
  0 h/week 381/1894 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
  1 h/week 286/2112 0.54 (0.46, 0.63)* <0.001 0.81 (0.69, 0.96)* 0.012 0.86 (0.73, 1.01) 0.070 0.87 (0.73, 1.03) 0.110
  2 h/week 340/2145 0.65 (0.56, 0.75)* <0.001 0.96 (0.83, 1.13) 0.641 1.01 (0.85, 1.18) 0.949 1.01 (0.84, 1.23) 0.928
  3–4 h/week 283/1988 0.58 (0.49, 0.67)* <0.001 0.84 (0.72, 0.99)* 0.038 0.86 (0.73, 1.01) 0.071 0.86 (0.72, 1.02) 0.089
  ≥5 h/week 263/1848 0.57 (0.49, 0.67)* <0.001 0.82 (0.69, 0.97)* 0.021 0.84 (0.71, 1.00) 0.051 0.84 (0.70, 1.00) 0.054
VPA
  0 h/week 981/5688 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
  1 h/week 302/2207 0.66 (0.58, 0.75)* <0.001 0.87 (0.76, 1.00)* 0.048 0.92 (0.80, 1.05) 0.215 0.93 (0.81, 1.07) 0.294
  ≥2 h/week 270/2092 0.63 (0.55, 0.72)* <0.001 0.81 (0.70, 0.93)* 0.004 0.85 (0.73, 0.98)* 0.022 0.86 (0.74, 0.99)* 0.037
Physically inactive vs actived
  Inactive (no MVPA) 339/1607 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
  Active (any MVPA) 1214/8380 0.54 (0.48, 0.61)* <0.001 0.80 (0.70, 0.91)* 0.001 0.85 (0.74, 0.96)* 0.012 0.85 (0.75, 0.97)* 0.018
Following physical activity recommendationse
  No 777/4613 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
  Yes 776/5374 0.77 (0.70, 0.85)* <0.001 0.90 (0.81, 1.00)* 0.049 0.90 (0.82, 1.00) 0.059 0.91 (0.82, 1.01) 0.062

Data are presented as HR (95% CI) for mean follow-up of 27.1 (SD 6.3) years

MPA, moderate intensity physical activity; VPA, vigorous intensity activity

aUsing interval-censored, illness–death model

bAdjusted for age (as time-scale), sex, ethnicity, marital status, education, occupational position, smoking status, alcohol consumption, fruits and vegetables intake and mutual adjustment for MPA and VPA in analysis on these variables

cAdditionally adjusted for hypertension, total cholesterol, CVD drugs and prevalent CVD

dInactive, 0 h/week of MVPA; active, >0 h/week of MVPA

eNo, <3 h/week of MVPA and <2 h/week of VPA; yes, ≥3 h/week of MVPA or ≥2 h/week of VPA

*p < 0.05 (all exact p values presented to account for multiple testing)