Table 2. . Performance of single metabolite models versus model for end-stage liver disease-Na score predicting 1-year mortality in 39 patients with cirrhosis caused by primary biliary cholangitis or primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Plasma metabolites	Hazard ratio†	p-value for hazard ratio	Time-dependent AUROC (at 1 year)‡	AUROC 95% confidence limits (lower)§	AUROC 95% confidence limits (upper)§
Myo-inositol	4.967	0.0013	0.9537	0.5612	1.0000
N-Acetylputrescine	3.343	0.0052	0.9018	0.7763	1.0000
Trans-aconitate	2.080	0.0181	0.8880	0.7149	1.0000
N-Acetylalanine	0.040	0.0009	0.8438	0.1627	1.0000
Erythronate	7.595	0.0010	0.8345	0.7094	0.9595
N1-Methyladenosine	13.113	0.0038	0.8279	0.3914	1.0000
N6-Carbamoylthreonyladenosine	13.420	0.0002	0.8055	0.5991	1.0000
N2,N2-Dimethylguanosine	27.828	0.0003	0.8055	0.5816	1.0000
Pseudouridine	0.732	0.6581	0.7837	0.2180	1.0000
Glucuronate	4.590	0.0004	0.7828	0.5997	0.9659
Dimethylarginine (SDMA + ADMA)	5.255	0.0087	0.7790	0.5566	1.0000
N4-Acetylcytidine	0.759	0.1244	0.7716	0.5108	1.0000
MELD-Na score	1.162	0.0020	0.7591	0.5553	0.9628
Picolinate	2.628	0.1060	0.7510	0.5272	0.9748
Creatinine	3.741	0.0605	0.7449	0.1407	1.0000
3-(4-Hydroxyphenyl)lactate	2.951	0.0056	0.7288	0.4799	0.9777
3-Methoxtyrosine	0.139	0.0066	0.7248	0.3760	1.0000
Xylitol	4.130	0.1032	0.7151	0.1167	1.0000
Cystathionine	1.972	0.0143	0.7150	0.4541	0.9759
1-Methylhistidine	1.967	0.0097	0.6893	0.4248	0.9537
Cytidine	2.516	0.0690	0.6867	0.2664	1.0000
4-Acetamidobutanoate	2.547	0.0007	0.6649	0.4267	0.9032
Gamma-glutamylphenylalanine	0.569	0.5629	0.6626	0.1644	1.0000
N-Formylmethionine	3.838	0.0851	0.6591	0.2915	1.0000
N-Acetylserine	1.185	0.5744	0.6462	0.3149	0.9775
S-Adenosylhomocysteine	2.132	0.4237	0.6205	0.0874	1.0000
Adenosine	0.800	0.1537	0.5857	0.2650	0.9064
Phenyllactate	5.234	0.0998	0.5775	0.0838	1.0000
Adenine	1.252	0.3103	0.5713	0.1576	0.9849
N6-Acetyllysine	1.271	0.6092	0.5489	0.3094	0.7884
7-Methylguanine	2.535	0.3854	0.5290	0.0823	0.9757
3-Methoxytyramine Sulfate	1.425	0.5396	0.5109	0.1052	0.9167
N-Acetylvaline	0.803	0.4900	0.4993	0.1065	0.8922
3-Ureidopropionate	0.867	0.8197	0.4098	0.0000	0.8829

Bold font highlights the MELD-Na score.

^†Metabolites were expressed on a log₂ scale – hazard ratios represent the risk of death associated with one log₂ unit increment.

^‡Data were sorted by AUROC (largest to smallest), then by p-value (smallest to largest).

^§CIs that did not include 0.50 were considered significant (e.g. 95% CIs for the AUROC of myo-inositol model is significant because it did not include 0.50). Several plasma metabolites predicted 1-year mortality with significantly greater accuracy (AUROC) compared with the accuracy (AUROC) of the MELD-Na score.

^¶SDMA; ADMA.

ADMA: Asymmetric dimethylarginine; AUROC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; MELD-Na: Model for end-stage liver disease-Na; SDMA: Symmetric dimethylarginine.