Table 2.
Summary of the numbers of CRS cases prevented during the period 2013–2050 by the introduction of MR vaccination in 2013 through 4 vaccination scenarios, assuming that the age-specific proportion susceptible follows the pattern seen in serological data from Central Vietnam, Japan, Fiji and Thailand (see Fig. 1) and using the base-case assumptions about contact between individuals. The numbers in parentheses reflect the 95% range of model estimates, obtained through rejection sampling
| Serological profile |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Central Vietnam | V low transmission (Japan) | Low transmission (Fiji) | Medium-high transmission (Thailand) |
| 1. One dose routine immunisation for children aged 9 months | 117862 (88937, 139180) | 71566 (8714, 115909) | 139323 (128520, 148684) | 50241 (−15988, 105867) |
| 2. Catch-up campaign for children aged 9mths–14years, followed by one dose routine immunisation for children aged 9 months | 125105 (93837, 146215) | 73612 (8830, 120255) | 153284 (151589, 154208) | 60391 (2307, 121906) |
| 3. Catch-up campaign for women of child-bearing age (15–35 years), followed by one dose routine immunisation for children aged 9 months | 124323 (93526, 146222) | 73695 (8764, 120676) | 153427 (151681, 154392) | 51990 (−16051, 118611) |
| 4. Catch-up campaign for children aged 9 months–14 years and women (aged 15–35 years), followed by one dose routine immunisation for children aged 9 months | 125455 (94055, 146661) | 73951 (8845, 120920) | 153834 (152109, 154774) | 60504 (2309, 122204) |