Table 2.
Number and percentage of days in which the predicted visit volume was within 30% of the observed visit volume, Edmonton, Alberta, 2008–2014
| Model | Pre-H1N1 (1 Aug 2008–31 Mar 2009) | Extended 2009–2010 season | 2010-2011 (1 Aug 2010–31 Jul 2011) | 2011–2012 (1 Aug 2011–31 Jul 2012) | 2012–2013 (1 Aug 2012–31 Jul 2013) | 2013–2014 (1 Aug 2013–19 Feb 2014) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole period (1 Apr 2009–31 Jul 2010) | H1N1 Wave 1 (1 Apr 2009–31 Jul 2009) | H1N1 Wave 2 (1 Oct 2009–5 Dec 2009) | Post-H1N1 (6 Dec 2009–31 Jul 2010) | ||||||
| All days included in calculation | |||||||||
| Total no. of days in period | 243 | 487 | 122 | 66 | 238 | 365 | 366 | 365 | 203 |
| Main Model | 168 (69.1%) | 285 (58.5%) | 66 (54.1%) | 29 (43.9%) | 156 (65.5%) | 235 (64.4%) | 253 (69.1%) | 238 (65.2%) | 131 (64.5%) |
| Model 2: GLMM | 178 (73.3%) | 227 (46.6%) | 27 (22.1%) | 12 (18.2%) | 160 (67.2%) | 227 (62.2%) | 194 (53.0%) |
105 (28.8%) | 31 (15.3%) |
| Model 3: GLMM and locally-predicted residual |
186 (76.5%) | 319 (65.5%) | 87 (71.3%) | 18 (27.3%) | 167 (70.2%) | 269 (73.7%) | 298 (81.4%) | 272 (74.5%) | 144 (70.9%) |
| Non-parametric method | 149 (61.3%) | 268 (55.0%) |
65 (53.3%) | 34 (51.5%) | 131 (55.0%) | 199 (54.5%) | 211 (57.7%) | 230 (63.0%) | 127 (62.6%) |
| Only high volume (≥36 visits) days included in calculation | |||||||||
| No. of days in each period with ≥36 visits (% of total days in period) | 22 (9.1) | 71 (14.6) | 15 (12.3) | 39 (59.0) | 17 (7.1) | 31 (8.5) | 33 (9.0) | 84 (23.0) | 79 (38.9) |
| Main Model | 18 (81.8%) | 30 (42.3%) | 8 (53.3%) | 10 (25.6%) | 12 (70.6%) | 23 (74.2%) | 22 (66.7%) | 58 (69.0%) | 59 (74.7%) |
| Model 2: GLMM | 11 (50.0%) |
8 (11.3%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 8 (47.1%) | 17 (54.8%) | 13 (39.4%) | 7 (8.3%) | 2 (2.5%) |
| Model 3: GLMM and locally-predicted residual |
19 (86.4%) | 18 (25.4%) | 3 (20.0%) |
5 (12.8%) | 10 (58.8%) | 24 (77.4%) | 21 (63.6%) | 50 (59.5%) | 45 (57.0%) |
| Non-parametric method | 13 (59.1%) | 34 (47.9%) | 8 (53.3%) | 17 (43.6%) | 9 (52.9%) | 15 (48.4%) | 13 (39.4%) | 54 (64.3%) | 55 (69.6%) |
Note: The highest percentage(s) in each period is shown in bold.