Table 2.
Model outcomes over cohort’s lifetime (difference from status quo)
| Outcomea | Scenariosb | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status quoc | Difference from status quo | |||
| 15% uptake | 15% uptake, next generation | 30% uptake, next generation | ||
| Monetized QALYs ($150,000 per QALY), $ (billion) | 541,661.5 | 2,022.3 | 2,666.7 | 3,454.7 |
| Net cost, $ (billion) | — | 862.8 | 772.4 | 941.0 |
| Total treatment cost | — | 1,187.8 | 1,187.8 | 1,498.4 |
| Total medical spending | 53,613.9 | −139.2 | −188.0 | −250.3 |
| Cost of absenteeism and presenteeism | 1,316.5 | −113.8 | −154.0 | −200.0 |
| Total earnings | 127,559.6 | 72.0 | 73.4 | 107.1 |
| Societal value, $ (billion) | 614,290.7 | 1,159.4 | 1,894.3 | 2,513.6 |
| QALYs, $ (million) | 3,611.1 | 13.5 | 17.8 | 23.0 |
| AOM cost per QALY, $ | — | 64,000 | 43,000 | 41,000 |
All outcomes are cumulative over cohort’s lifetime, discounted, and reported in 2018 US dollars.
The status quo scenario represents current rates of diet and exercise and no AOM use. The 15% uptake scenario represents 15% annual AOM uptake among eligible treatment‐naïve individuals starting in 2019. The 15% uptake, next generation scenario represents 15% annual AOM uptake among eligible treatment‐naïve individuals starting in 2019 and the availability of more efficacious AOM in 2023 onward. The 30% uptake, next generation scenario represents 15% annual AOM uptake among eligible treatment‐naïve individuals starting in 2019 until 2023 and the availability of more efficacious AOM combined with higher uptake (30%) in 2023 onward.
The status quo column presents baseline results projected with current rates of obesity and diet and exercise. Other columns present projected results calculated as differences from status quo under each treatment scenario.
QALY, quality‐adjusted life‐year; AOM, antiobesity medications.