Fig. 4.

Night-to-night departure probability in Northern Wheatears (light grey), European Robins (orange) and Common Blackbirds (dark grey) predicted by a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model. Species-specific predictions (lines) and associated 95% confidence intervals (shaded areas) are given. To illustrate the species-specific differences in the departure probability we used the candidate model with the best fit (Additional file 1: Table S3). Predictions were made with the remaining variables included in the model set to their mean