Fig. 5.

Night-to-night departure probability under different tailwind/headwind conditions in Northern Wheatears, European Robins and Common Blackbirds predicted by a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model. Species-specific predictions (lines) and associated 95% confidence intervals (shaded areas) are given for the 25th percentile (broken line; light headwind) and 75th percentile (solid line; light tailwind) of the scaled tailwind assistance birds experienced at sunset. Details on the variation in tailwind assistance are given in Additional file 1: Table S1. To illustrate the effect of tailwind assistance on departure probability we used the candidate model with the best fit (Additional file 1: Table S3). Predictions were made with the remaining variables included in the model set to their mean