Figure 6.

There is strong model agreement throughout the majority of the area we estimate as endemic to Valley fever for the RCP8.5 climate scenario in years (a) 2035, (b) 2065, and (c) 2095. The model agreement shows a measure of uncertainty for the counties along the edge of the endemic area. Some models predict that the endemic range in 2095 will expand into counties as far east as western Minnesota. Percent model agreement was calculated as the number of individual CMIP5 models that predict the county will have a climate that permits endemicity, divided by the total number of models (n = 30), as projected by the climate‐constrained niche model.