Table 1.

Parameter posterior summaries of the refitted model for Madagascar

Description	Term	Posterior median	95% credible interval
Intercept	Intercept	− 2.655	(− 2.740,− 2.570)
Precipitation	CHIRPS_r	0.060	(0.029,0.090)
	CHIRPS_r_lag1	0.019	(− 0.012,0.050)
	CHIRPS_r_lag2	0.051	(0.021,0.082)
	CHIRPS_r_lag3	0.053	(0.022,0.084)
Temperature suitability	TSI_Pv_r	0.013	(− 0.022,0.047)
	TSI_Pv_r_lag2	0.074	(0.039,0.109)
Vegetation cover	EVI_r_lag3	0.006	(− 0.021,0.032)
Tasselled cap brightness	TCB_r	− 0.019	(− 0.050,0.012)
	TCB_r_lag3	0.011	(− 0.020,0.043)
Observation variance	${\sigma }_e^2$	0.326	(0.318,0.333)
Field variance	${\sigma }_f^2$	0.245	(0.221,0.268)
Matérn scaling parameter	κ	3.163	(2.834,3.522)
Autoregressive parameter	a	0.756	(0.718,0.777)

The posterior medians of the statistically significant parameters under a 5% significance level are italicized. The Matérn smoothness parameter ν was fixed to 1