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. 2018 Dec 4;16(12):e05495. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5495

Table E.2.

Strengths and limitations of source attribution methods (adapted from Pires et al., 2014)

SA approach Strengths Limitations
Epidemiological studies
Case–control studies (including systematic review)
  • Able to identify variety of risk factors, including exposure routes, predisposing, behavioural or seasonal factors

  • A systematic review of published studies can be useful for regional analysis and may detect temporal and geographical variations

  • Can identify a wide range of known and unknown risk factors

  • Misclassification due to immunity may reduce attributable risk or suggest protection

  • Most studies only explain a small fraction of all cases

    • Cases may reflect a mixture of possible sources of exposure

    • Misclassification due to recall bias may lead to an underestimation of the attribution proportion

Analysis of data from outbreaks
  • Documentation that a hazard was transmitted to humans via a specific food item can be available

  • Data may capture the effect of contamination at multiple points from the farm‐to‐consumption chain

  • Wide variety of foods represented, including uncommon foods

  • Most readily available information for source attribution in some countries or regions

  • Quality of evidence varies

  • Large outbreaks, outbreaks associated with point sources, outbreaks with short incubation periods, or more severe symptoms are more likely to be investigated

  • Investigated cases may not be representative of all food‐borne illnesses

  • Certain pathogens and foods are more likely to be associated with reported outbreaks, which can lead to an overestimation of the attribution proportion

Subtyping
  • Identifies the most important reservoirs of the hazard, and therefore: a) is useful to prioritise interventions at production level; b) reduces uncertainty due to cross‐contamination or spread to accidental sources

  • Limited to hazards heterogeneously distributed among the reservoirs

  • No information on transmission pathways from reservoirs to humans

  • Data intensive, requiring a collection of representative isolates from all (major) sources

Comparative Risk Assessment
  • Accounts for different transmission routes from the same reservoir

  • Easily updated

  • Often limited by lack of data, resulting in large uncertainties

Expert knowledge elicitations
  • Allows for attribution to main transmission routes

  • Useful tool when data is lacking

  • May be the only available method for source attribution

  • Conclusions are based on the individual expert's judgement, which may be misinformed or biased