Table 8.

Probability of HPAI and LPAI introduction into a commercial poultry holding via non‐wild bird pathways, separating third country trade and intra‐EU movements (for brevity, some categories have been grouped; relevant explanation of the probability scores is reported in Appendix F and summarised in Sections 3.4.1–3.4.10)

Pathway	Third country trade		Intra‐EU movements
	HPAI	LPAI	HPAI	LPAI
Live birds, including birds as pets, bird of prey, pigeons or others	Extreme unlikely		Very unlikely
Live poultry (poultry for breeding or production (> 72 h old); day‐old chicks and hatching eggs)	Extreme unlikely (live poultry and day‐old chicks); very unlikely (hatching eggs)		Unlikely	Unlikely (hatching eggs); Non‐negligible (live poultry and day‐old chicks)
Meat and eggs for human consumption	Very unlikely	Not relevant (meat); Very unlikely (eggs)	Very unlikely	Not relevant (meat); Very unlikely (eggs)
Semen	Non‐negligible	Not relevant	Non‐negligible	Not relevant
Feathers, skin and down	Extreme unlikely	Not relevant	Very unlikely	Not relevant
Feed	Extreme unlikely (non‐negligiblea)
Bedding	Extreme unlikely (non‐negligiblea)
Manure	Not relevant		Non‐negligible
Pharmaceuticals	Extreme unlikely
Other animal by‐products	Extreme unlikely	Not relevant	Extreme unlikely	Not relevant

^aWhen the commodity is stored in way that wild birds can have access to it.