Table D.15.
Estimates for HPAI provided in the EKEs by working group members or event participants
| Variable | Description | Question description | Clade | LB | Q1 | Median | Q3 | UB | Estimate done by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNWB | Total number of migratory non‐water birds entering the EU during fall–winter migratory season through the north‐east border | Total number of migratory non‐water birds entering the EU during fall–winter migratory season through the north‐east border. Number of birds in 1,000 units | 2.3.4.4 | 175,000 | 390,000 | 515,000 | 590,000 | 700,000 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Mslength | Length (in days) of the fall–winter migratory season for wild birds entering the EU through the north‐east border | Average over last 100 year of length in days of the fall–winter migratory season for wild bird of the water bird group entering in EU through north‐east border | 2.3.4.4 | 125 | Data | ||||
| MWB | Total number of migratory water birds entering the EU during fall–winter migratory season through the north‐east border | Total number of migratory water birds entering the EU during fall–winter migratory season through the north‐east border. Number of birds in 1,000 units | 2.3.4.4 | 17,500 | 26,500 | 37,250 | 46,500 | 55,000 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| NWBin | Number of non‐water birds landing into a holding | Estimate the average number, over 2016–2017 fall–winter migratory season (5 months duration), of non‐water birds (migratory and/or residential) that will land on any holding surface of a ‘worst‐case’ poultry holding per day | 2.3.4.4 | 200 | 400 | 750 | 2,000 | 10,000 | Workshop |
| Prob(contactNWB,NWB)1 | Probability that a non‐water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 1 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 1 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) and in other potential area in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 2 | 14.5 | 175 | 350 | 1,750 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactNWB,NWB)10 | Probability that a non‐water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 10 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 10 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) and in other potential area in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 17.5 | 130 | 1,500 | 2,700 | 7,000 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactNWB,NWB)100 | Probability that a non‐water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 100 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 100 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) and in other potential area in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 150 | 1,450 | 5,498.5 | 6,249 | 9,500 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactNWB,WB)1 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 1 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 1 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 210 | 600 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactNWB,WB)10 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 10 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 10 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 7.5 | 65 | 485 | 1,475 | 4,000 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactNWB,WB)100 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 100 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 100 infected non‐water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 75 | 525 | 3,475 | 5,749 | 8,500 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactWB,NWB)1 | Probability that a non‐water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 1 infected water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 1 infected water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 3 | 16 | 112.5 | 275 | 900 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactWB,NWB)10 | Probability that a non‐water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 10 infected water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 10 infected water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 30 | 160 | 1,125 | 2,750 | 8,999.5 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactWB,NWB)100 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 100 infected water bird in a foraging area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 100 infected water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 100 | 1,000 | 5,998.5 | 6,499 | 7,499.5 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| п_MWB | Prevalence of infected HPAIV water birds at the moment they cross the EU border | Think of a population of 1,000,000 migratory water birds crossing the EU north‐east border during the 2016/2017 fall–winter migration season. Estimate the number of these birds that will be HPAI H5N8 infected at the time they cross the north‐east EU border | 2.3.2.1c | 0 | 15 | 100 | 500 | 1,000 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| п_MWB | Prevalence of infected HPAIV water birds at the moment they cross the EU border | Think of a population of 1,000,000 migratory water birds crossing the EU north‐east border during the 2016/2017 fall–winter migration season. Estimate the number of these birds that will be HPAI H5N8 infected at the time they cross the north‐east EU border | 2.2.1.2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 200 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactWB,WB)1 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 1 infected water bird in a foraging area | Think of a population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 1 infected water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) or in a water body in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 150 | 400 | 1,500 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ShedWB | Duration in days of the shedding period in water birds | Total number of days a HPAI‐infected water bird will shed infectious virus | 2.3.2.1c | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ShedWB | Duration in days of the shedding period in water birds | Total number of days a HPAI‐infected water bird will shed infectious virus | 2.2.1.2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactWB,WB)10 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 10 infected water bird in a foraging area | Think of a population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 10 infected water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) or in a water body in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 12 | 170 | 1,450 | 3,500 | 6,499.5 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ShedNWB | Duration in days of the shedding period in non‐water birds | Total number of days a HPAI‐infected non‐water bird will shed the infectious virus | 2.3.2.1c | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ShedNWB | Duration in days of the shedding period in non‐water birds | Total number of days a HPAI‐infected non‐water bird will shed the infectious virus | 2.2.1.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| Prob(contactWB,WB)100 | Probability that a water bird comes in contact with the excretions of 100 infected water bird in a foraging area | Think of a population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might come in contact with the excretions shedded by 100 infected water bird in a foraging area (see definition above) or in a water body in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 112.5 | 1,275 | 6,498.5 | 7,249 | 7,499.5 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| π_MWB | Prevalence of infected HPAIV water birds at the moment they cross the EU border | Think of a population of 1,000,000 migratory water birds crossing the EU north‐east border during the 2016/2017 fall–winter migration season. Estimate the number of these birds that will be HPAI H5N8 infected at the time they cross the north‐east EU border | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 16.94 | 114.42 | 463.67 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb0 inf)1 | Probability for a worst‐case holding to get the infection given the presence of 1 HPAI‐infected wild bird | Think of 10,000 worst‐case poultry holdings (see definition above). Given exposure of the holding to 1 H5N8 infected wild bird, estimate the number of worst‐case poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 4.03 | 18.84 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb0 inf)10 | Probability for a worst‐case holding to get the infection given the presence of 10 HPAI‐infected wild bird | Think of 10,000 worst‐case poultry holdings (see definition above). Given exposure of the holding to 10 H5N8 infected wild bird, estimate the number of worst‐case poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 5.19 | 23.78 | 112.99 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb0 inf)100 | Probability for a worst‐case holding to get the infection given the presence of 100 HPAI‐infected wild bird | Think of 10,000 worst‐case poultry holdings (see definition above). Given exposure of the holding to 100 H5N8 infected wild bird, estimate the number of worst‐case poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 43.17 | 183.44 | 854.36 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb1 inf) | Probability for a holding to get the infection given the presence of 100 HPAI‐infected wild bird if access by wild birds to the water bodies was prevented | Consider the scenario described in Q21c and take the median number of worst‐case poultry holdings you estimated as a starting point for this question. If access by poultry (including waterfowl) to the water bodies was prevented in these poultry holdings, what would be the number of such poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 16.94 | 61.31 | 190.15 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb2 inf) | Probability for a holding to get the infection given the presence of 100 HPAI‐infected wild bird if in addition access of poultry to any outdoor area were prevented | Consider the scenario described in Q22 and take the median number of poultry holdings you estimated as a starting point for this question. If access by poultry (including waterfowl) to the water bodies AND access of poultry to any outdoor area were prevented in these poultry holdings, what would be the number of such poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 7.21 | 29.38 | 110.54 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb3 inf) | Probability for a holding to get the infection given the presence of 100 HPAI‐infected wild bird if in addition routine (daily average practiced) biosecurity measures were applied (disinfection of boots, changing clothes, washing hands) | Consider the scenario described in Q23 and take the median number of poultry holdings you estimated as a starting point for this question. If access by poultry (including waterfowl) to the water bodies AND access of poultry to any outdoor area were prevented AND routine (daily average practiced, e.g. on a layer/fattening holding) biosecurity measures were applied (e.g. disinfection of boots, changing clothes, washing hands, standard filtering provisions) in these poultry holdings, what would be the number of such poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 2.39 | 7.75 | 28.21 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| Prob(PHb4 inf) | Probability for a holding to get the infection given the presence of 100 HPAI‐infected wild bird if in addition high biosecurity measures were applied (as practised in nucleus or breeding herds) (rigorous implementation of showering in, complete exclusion of wild birds to feed, bedding and animal by‐products, separation of houses) | Consider the scenario described in Q23 and take the median number of poultry holdings you estimated as a starting point for this question. If access by poultry (including waterfowl) to the water bodies AND access of poultry to any outdoor area were prevented AND high biosecurity measures were applied (as practised in nucleus or breeding holding) (e.g. rigorous implementation of showering in; complete exclusion of wild birds to feed, bedding and animal by‐products; separation of houses) in these poultry holdings, what would be the number of such poultry holdings that will get infected in one day | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 0.0026 | 0.6694 | 6.6169 | 5,000 | Formal EKE |
| ProbInf_NWB|contact | Probability that a susceptible non‐water bird becomes infected given a contact with excretions containing infectious virus in a forage area | Think of a standard population of 10,000 non‐water birds (see definition above). Indicate the number of these birds that might become infected, provided they get in contact with excretions containing infectious virus in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000). Think of the various groups of birds separately (i.e. raptors, songbirds, waders, gulls–storks–cranes) and then sum them up | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 0.0001 | 0.000325 | 0.00065 | 0.0125 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ProbInf_WB|contact | Probability that a susceptible water bird becomes infected given a contact with excretions containing infectious virus in a forage area | Think of a population of 10,000 water birds. Indicate the number of these birds that might become infected, provided they get in contact with excretions containing infectious virus in a foraging area (see definition above) in a standard day (number out of 10,000) | 2.3.4.4 | 0.000025 | 0.00055 | 0.002125 | 0.004 | 0.025 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ShedNWB | Duration in days of the shedding period in non‐water birds | Total number of days a HPAI‐infected non‐water bird will shed the infectious virus | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 2.7 | 5 | 7.6 | 14 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| ShedWB | Duration in days of the shedding period in water birds | Total number of days a HPAI‐infected water bird will shed infectious virus | 2.3.4.4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | Semi‐formal EKE |
| WBin | Number of water birds landing into a holding | Estimate the average number, over 2016–2017 fall–winter migratory season (5 months duration), of water birds (migratory and/or residential) that will land on any holding surface of a worst‐case poultry holding | 2.3.4.4 | 0.1 | 5.5 | 50 | 300 | 1,000 | Formal EKE |