Table D.18.

Estimates for LPAI provided in the EKEs by working group members or event participants

Variable	Description	LB	Q1	Median	Q3	UB	Estimate done by
MSLength	Length (in days) of AIV transmission period considered in the LPAI model	Fixed to 125 days (same as for HPAI)					Arbitrary
1/rNWB	Reciprocal of the duration in days of the LPAI shedding period in non‐water birds	1	3	4	6	14	Semi‐formal EKE
1/rWB	Reciprocal of the duration in days of the LPAI shedding period in water birds	2	4	6	8	21	Semi‐formal EKE
mdNWB	Mortality rate in non‐water birds due to LPAI disease	0.0025	0.0025	0.0025	0.0025	0.0025	Literature
mdWB	Mortality rate in water birds due to LPAI disease	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	Literature
Prob(InfNWB|contact)	Probability that a susceptible non‐water bird becomes infected with LPAI given a contact with excretions containing infectious virus in a forage area	0	0.0001	0.000325	0.00065	0.0125	Semi‐formal EKE
Prob(InfWB|contact)	Probability that a susceptible water bird becomes infected with LPAI given a contact with excretions containing infectious virus in a forage area	0.000025	0.00055	0.002125	0.004	0.025	Semi‐formal EKE
${\mathbf{NWB}}_{\mathbf{i}}^{\mathbf{in}}$	Number of non‐water birds landing into a holding						Estimate from HPAI was used
${\mathbf{WB}}_{\mathbf{i}}^{\mathbf{in}}$	Number of water birds landing into a holding						Estimate from HPAI was used
${\mathrm{C}}_{\mathrm{HP},\mathrm{LP}}^1$	Reduction coefficient for the probability that a susceptible water bird becomes infected given a contact with excretions containing LPAI infectious virus with respect to HPAI‐infected excretion	0.01	0.03	0.05	0.1	0.5	Formal EKE
${\mathrm{C}}_{\mathrm{HP},\mathrm{LP}}^2$	Reduction coefficient for the probability for a worst‐case holding to get the infection given the presence of LPAI‐infected wild bird with respect to HPAI‐infected wild bird	0	0.08	0.1	0.3	1	Formal EKE