Figure 14.

Notifications of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar in Baltic States, Poland and the Czech Republic

• The graph pinpoints Animal Disease Notification System (ADNS) cases suggestive of human‐mediated spread of ASF. Notifications (cases in wild boar) from the ADNS are coloured according to the possibility of their relationship to older notified cases. The strength of the relationship is evaluated either in terms of direct distance of every new case from any other case recorded at least 7 days earlier (left panel), or by the distance combined with the necessary velocity to cover this distance (right panel). The cases are marked differently in size and colour depending on the value placed on the relationship to other cases. The enlarged purple case notifications refer to values in the upper 99th percentile (the 1% of all cases with longest distance/highest distance‐velocity values); while the red colour refers to values between the 98th and 99th percentiles. Numbers show how many days after 1/2/2014 that individual cases were detected. The insert shows the outcome of the procedure for the Czech Republic using a scale expanded ten‐fold.