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. 2017 Mar 8;15(3):e04698. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4698

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© 2017 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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Simulated dynamics of bluetongue virus in south‐east England over a 25‐year period

Top left: Extinction time (in years). Top right: Time course for the proportion (%) of farms with BTV circulating. Middle: Time course for the proportion (%) of cattle (left) and sheep (right) that are infected (blue lines) or seropositive (red lines). Bottom: Time course for the mean within‐herd prevalence (%) of cattle (left) and sheep (right) that are infected (blue lines) or seropositive (red lines). Each figure shows the mean of one hundred replicates of the model.