. 2020 Jan 13;4:100054. doi: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2020.100054

Table 4.

Adjusted odds ratios (OR) from multivariate longitudinal analyses among patients 18–64 years old (n = 635,825) and 65+ years old (n = 611,845) from 2011 to 2016.

Variable	Seasons 2011–2016
	Adjusted OR (95% CI)^a
	18–64	65+
Sex (female)	1.19 (1.18, 1.20)^*	1.01 (1.00, 1.02)^*

Ethnicity
White	Ref.	Ref.
Asian	1.10 (1.07, 1.13)^*	0.85 (0.81, 0.88)^*
Black	0.82 (0.80, 0.85)^*	0.59 (0.56, 0.62)^*
Mixed/Other	0.95 (0.94, 0.97)^*	0.93 (0.92, 0.95)^*
Unknown	0.83 (0.82, 0.84)^*	0.72 (0.71, 0.73)^*

Patient IMD
1 = Least deprived	–	Ref.
2	–	0.93 (0.92, 0.95)^*
3	–	0.90 (0.88, 0.91)^*
4	–	0.85 (0.83, 0.86)^*
5 = Most deprived	–	0.75 (0.74, 0.76)^*

Smoking status
Never smoker	Ref.	Ref.
Current smoker	0.86 (0.85, 0.87)^*	0.79 (0.78, 0.80)^*
Ex-smoker	1.06 (1.04, 1.07)^*	1.07 (1.07, 1.08)^*
Unknown	0.60 (0.56, 0.63)^*	0.37 (0.36, 0.39)^*
Pregnant	2.89 (2.83, 2.95)^*	–^b
Chronic renal disease	2.33 (2.20, 2.46)^*	–
Chronic heart disease	2.01 (1.97, 2.04)^*	1.40 (1.38, 1.42)^*
Chronic respiratory disease	1.47 (1.45, 1.49)^*	1.60 (1.58, 1.63)^*
Chronic liver disease	1.13 (1.10, 1.16)^*	–
Diabetes	4.25 (4.18, 4.32)^*	1.57 (1.54, 1.59)^*
Immunosuppression	2.36 (2.29, 2.44)^*	1.22 (1.17, 1.27)^*
Chronic neurological disease	2.13 (2.08, 2.18)^*	1.10 (1.08, 1.12)^*
Morbidly obese (BMI ≥ 40)	0.68 (0.67, 0.70)^*	0.97 (0.94, 0.99)^*
Unknown	0.63 (0.62, 0.64)^*	0.57 (0.56, 0.58)^*
Composite at-risk score^c	2.33 (2.31, 2.36)^*	1.39 (1.38, 1.39)^*

GP consultations per year
0–2	Ref.	Ref.
3–6	1.80 (1.79, 1.81)^*	1.56 (1.55, 1.57)^*
7+	2.70 (2.68, 2.72)^*	1.97 (1.96, 1.99)^*

Practice region
London	Ref.	Ref.
Midlands & East	1.21 (1.19, 1.23)^*	1.32 (1.30, 1.35)^*
North	1.30 (1.28, 1.32)^*	1.42 (1.39, 1.45)^*
South	1.16 (1.14, 1.18)^*	1.21 (1.19, 1.23)^*
Season^d	0.97 (0.97, 0.97)^*	0.95 (0.95, 0.96)^*

Prior season severity
Low	Ref.	–
Moderate	1.00 (0.99, 1.01)	–
High	0.97 (0.96, 0.98)^*	–
Prior season VE (high baseline)	0.99 (0.98, 0.99)^*	0.98 (0.97, 0.98)^*

(–) variable was excluded due to lack of significance (p > 0.20), unless noted otherwise.

We adjusted the odds ratios for all characteristics as listed in the above table (except for the composite at-risk score, where we omitted the individual at-risk conditions to prevent collinearity).

Pregnancy was excluded from 65+ analysis due to 0 pregnancy records.

The composite at-risk score was calculated as the patient’s total # of at-risk conditions, excluding age.

Season was a continuous measure of time (e.g. 1 = 2011, 2 = 2012,… etc.)

p < 0.05.