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. 2019 Apr 21;8(1):640–649. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2019.1605846

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© 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group, on behalf of Shanghai Shangyixun Cultural Communication Co., Ltd

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 4. — Model simulations to predict the effect of rodent control on LASV extinction probability in a population of M. natalensis in a rural village in Upper Guinea. The figures a, b and c show the number of consecutive years that rodents need to be controlled/vaccinated to ensure LASV extinction (>95% of simulation extinct). If “years to extinction” equals 10 years, at least 10 years or more will be necessary to ensure extinction. Figure d shows the invasion probability of LASV when one LASV positive M. natalensis enters a completely susceptible population in a rural village. The different colours represent simulations at different values of the transmission-density coefficient (q = 0 is density-dependent transmission; q = 1 is frequency-dependent transmission) or times that rodents were vaccinated per year (when q = 0.25).